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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$944,039
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$864,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $944,039 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c12,674$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.162,57613.2%339 W · 2,237 L+4.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes1c9,184$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3614015.7%22 W · 118 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-60.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes4c7,687$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.2710442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes3c6,319$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387e…56a5backed Yes15c3,910$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9997…c994backed Yes8c3,753$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7060…5befbacked Yes7c3,366$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b2…042cbacked Yes8c3,342$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8b…e094backed Yes5c3,340$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f28…0417backed Yes5c3,243$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c46…9c76backed Yes5c3,141$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x687c…2dc1backed Yes8c3,004$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fae…c21cbacked Yes5c2,894$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d6…4828backed Yes5c2,856$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d31…d2ccbacked Yes5c2,605$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa921…ee49backed Yes8c2,559$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes16c2,500$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.6613511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed Yes4c2,205$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b02…e7debacked Yes7c2,137$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8891…71f8backed Yes5c2,045$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7f…d0d4backed Yes4c2,040$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6088…5adebacked Yes5c2,013$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802951.7%15 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes12c1,982$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.1385216.4%140 W · 712 L+24.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1610…63c0backed Yes5c1,725$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc042…0217backed Yes5c1,639$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3100…2014backed Yes6c1,616$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba05…7615backed Yes8c1,600$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c87…0136backed Yes8c1,568$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a3…66f8backed Yes4c1,517$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x07a6…a630backed Yes4c1,507$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1555…34fbbacked Yes4c1,471$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa022…7a52backed Yes5c1,469$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00d…d269backed Yes4c1,449$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46c8…2b76backed Yes7c1,437$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0820…1f56backed Yes5c1,428$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c0…3000backed Yes4c1,415$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe5b7…2ceebacked Yes4c1,407$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1812…a728backed Yes5c1,391$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad9…e969backed Yes4c1,358$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.89520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc548…65dcbacked Yes8c1,351$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c83…6489backed Yes6c1,346$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934e…bc1fbacked Yes5c1,341$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b27…631dbacked Yes6c1,316$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc95…0152backed Yes5c1,313$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5169…0f20backed Yes4c1,273$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ed…c600backed Yes3c1,244$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes12c1,237$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3578111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db8…55bdbacked Yes4c1,221$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3fd5…2f25backed Yes3c1,181$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf20…67aebacked Yes10c1,139$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.162317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e20…9776backed Yes7c1,107$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c1,100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-71.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed5e…326fbacked Yes7c1,099$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcefd…ff7bbacked Yes5c1,090$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8d…f378backed Yes7c1,057$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b54…50d6backed Yes5c1,032$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab9b…72febacked Yes6c1,025$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x216c…ec53backed Yes13c1,022$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd431…21a9backed Yes8c1,021$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9d…df76backed Yes13c1,017$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes4c1,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes14c1,000$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13914829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c995.97$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.862,1813.9%85 W · 2,096 L+4.7wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8542…628ebacked Yes6c976$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcef…19bcbacked Yes5c968$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5c…0e43backed Yes6c964$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4de…aa16backed Yes13c960$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a1…d2aebacked Yes14c950$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc84a…a2b6backed Yes6c946$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes9c930.71$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.61,04111%115 W · 926 L+4.5wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6be…3dc2backed Yes5c929$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc9…072abacked Yes6c914$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd032…e636backed Yes15c912$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc42…8dcdbacked Yes5c909$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc3…0b41backed Yes15c907$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8d…b2d7backed Yes5c905$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b3…1b3ebacked Yes5c899.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…f7f1backed Yes3c898$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc911…4d11backed Yes5c885$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdac9…f606backed Yes5c881$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb847…51acbacked Yes5c880$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c5e…f1b0backed Yes4c878.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57dc…414bbacked Yes4c861.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2a…39e0backed Yes5c833$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+214.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0208…7c2abacked Yes5c832$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fd…e6b8backed Yes5c828$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…aba6backed Yes8c828$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5043…dabebacked Yes4c823$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf9…f10fbacked Yes5c813$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea9…1699backed Yes6c809$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb2…e80abacked Yes11c797$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff40…c553backed Yes5c781$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,462.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes9c777.71$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.45715.6%4 W · 67 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-84.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49dd…394ebacked Yes6c760$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes8c733.94$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.028915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4186…fd45backed Yes4c717$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6df…680fbacked Yes4c716$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…31e3backed Yes13c716$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc07e…1c74backed Yes14c715$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.