Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f18d640d67834a554237be88ed66590d5eda55d3ad14a3b5ce181aa22c869cb

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $129,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $85,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,164 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	1c	3,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x909a…f13cbacked Yes	5c	1,971$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.67	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	3cpaid	+1,297.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6b…caeebacked Yes	4c	1,777$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20f0…49bcbacked Yes	5c	1,733$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f60…cb70backed Yes	5c	1,636$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65d0…425abacked Yes	5c	1,636$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.26	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c1…4e0ebacked Yes	5c	1,610$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d1…b4bcbacked Yes	4c	1,494$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.76	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…0b32backed Yes	5c	1,481$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,448$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.28	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94f7…1c4abacked Yes	4c	1,424$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d0…3802backed Yes	4c	1,390$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb3…b8f5backed Yes	4c	1,325$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf87…ebc0backed Yes	5c	1,322$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9356…6857backed Yes	4c	1,286$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x246d…3364backed Yes	5c	1,256$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08a4…40c1backed Yes	5c	1,147$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3905…16d9backed Yes	4c	1,105$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec0…8f01backed Yes	5c	1,103$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6223…6d15backed Yes	5c	1,050$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8100…0885backed Yes	5c	1,046$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa23…f9dabacked Yes	5c	1,043$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ae…4ff0backed Yes	5c	1,002$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7eee…6809backed Yes	5c	988$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…c513backed Yes	4c	975$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc361…1627backed Yes	4c	974$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72f7…a31abacked Yes	4c	836$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e2…70d3backed Yes	5c	832$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Yes	2c	770$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4837…41fdbacked Yes	5c	767$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	5c	765.65$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.19	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9993…a6cbbacked Yes	5c	663$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.82	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb963…b312backed Yes	5c	660$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.68	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	4c	649.18$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.77	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x127a…bd94backed Yes	5c	552$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	480.45$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	4c	439.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes	3c	423.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	4c	400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes	4c	377.26$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	303.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	279.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	6c	257.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	6c	231.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.86	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event