TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7534…c561backed Yes3c4,980$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes0c4,877$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,692$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.722,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce7…33ecbacked Yes3c3,245$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+1,823.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc82…edc8backed Yes3c3,171$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Yes2c2,404$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.07229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x345a…1ae5backed Yes3c2,298$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4f4…c26cbacked Yes3c2,153$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x758c…8707backed Yes3c2,067$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09c9…28d6backed Yes3c1,827$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x589d…99a4backed Yes3c1,791$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2658…27d3backed Yes3c1,654$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8895…29a5backed Yes3c1,639$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07a6…a630backed Yes3c1,638$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adb…bcd2backed Yes3c1,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b9…8857backed Yes3c1,546$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41a…8921backed Yes3c1,516$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0503…a390backed Yes3c1,485$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d6f…c25bbacked Yes3c1,456$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc7…7d84backed Yes3c1,398$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c43…e2a4backed Yes4c1,384$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c0…3000backed Yes3c1,360$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd500…6526backed Yes3c1,327$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…f7f1backed Yes3c1,310$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x111d…a58bbacked Yes3c1,288$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e08…639ebacked Yes3c1,278$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x505b…a04dbacked Yes3c1,238$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d1…9f3fbacked Yes3c1,221$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…8e04backed Yes3c1,209$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcbf…3b98backed Yes4c1,140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick4cpaid+1,182.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65fa…8368backed Yes3c1,117$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe183…bb96backed Yes3c1,112$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes2c1,102$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.55704.3%3 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-87.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd58…1082backed Yes3c1,095$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721b…3846backed Yes4c1,067$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9776…fbc7backed Yes4c1,051$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f9f…90aebacked Yes3c1,004$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd4…3135backed Yes3c982$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6961…96fdbacked Yes3c982$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12d…efaabacked Yes3c932$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes2c894.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.052317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+74.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb81…d4d3backed Yes3c859$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes2c810.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.67639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c790.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.682,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c785.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.541,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c775.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.23281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ad…2244backed Yes3c775$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…848abacked Yes3c774$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e4f…f394backed Yes3c747$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c78…c20cbacked Yes3c665$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a0a…3976backed Yes3c641$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0116…fdf7backed Yes6c607.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff2…e90fbacked Yes3c533$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9551backed Yes3c492$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13bf…544ebacked Yes3c475.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131030%3 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick8cpaid+162.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes3c464.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7481…82b2backed Yes3c363$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes3c309.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.292116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.