Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6a5e9315aca82a5517b5d5931f9589791374a0e61faa10dec01d19ee42ee2c7

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $133,380
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $81,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,380 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x78a4…824bbacked Yes	6c	2,857$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…ac5dbacked Yes	6c	2,750$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6f…a5a6backed Yes	6c	2,299$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.74	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8b…3106backed Yes	5c	1,922$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,776$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.53	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e32…4eb6backed Yes	2c	1,647$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73fe…a025backed Yes	5c	1,590$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59db…cde5backed Yes	5c	1,473$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc7…80f8backed Yes	5c	1,386$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…102dbacked Yes	5c	1,301$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.45	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0f…d9a9backed Yes	5c	1,198$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.1	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c9…28d6backed Yes	5c	1,157$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdc5…8742backed Yes	5c	1,150$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	6c	1,112$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.58	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd77c…7774backed Yes	5c	994$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.69	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4136…ab3bbacked Yes	5c	915$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.41	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ce…60dfbacked Yes	5c	860$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.28	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb8…19eebacked Yes	4c	789.21$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e84…a3d0backed Yes	5c	784$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf994…7b4cbacked Yes	5c	778$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a64…216dbacked Yes	5c	761$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.81	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…3ae6backed Yes	5c	742$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.84	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbc…210abacked Yes	6c	725$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.05	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes	2c	625.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	58	19%11 W · 47 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe964…ea93backed Yes	6c	617$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd88…2f42backed Yes	5c	591$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.73	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5279…5aabbacked Yes	5c	584$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	5c	578.35$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54c5…d8babacked Yes	5c	574$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x393e…f7cbbacked Yes	5c	567$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa388…ba76backed Yes	6c	560$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92bc…bdc0backed Yes	6c	551$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.96	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes	4c	545.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4640…57d4backed Yes	5c	511$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29d…6601backed Yes	5c	497$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ace…ef05backed Yes	6c	489.26$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.23	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9633…f4c5backed Yes	5c	486$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	469.69$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.73	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf20…67aebacked Yes	8c	444.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.38	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes	5c	425.58$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	422.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.72	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	393.52$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8b…7b53backed Yes	6c	355$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	4c	322.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes	5c	297.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	289.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	5c	259.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738d…8b20backed Yes	5c	220$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	7cpaid	+266.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes	5c	211.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event