Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1560-1599 tweets in April 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52f06d9cbbf0bad6f154c52a12a6c64aa1f8dd1582c2d310d378d636a6d978a6

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $147,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,984 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0c02…fc66backed Yes	6c	3,965$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.94	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	4cpaid	+941.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26c1…e59ebacked Yes	6c	3,942$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…bb6fbacked Yes	6c	3,004$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfbae…405fbacked Yes	6c	2,907$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea33…8e42backed Yes	5c	2,135$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f67…52e7backed Yes	4c	1,960$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7371…8823backed Yes	5c	1,877$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.85	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e82…ce23backed Yes	5c	1,869$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.71	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…f054backed Yes	5c	1,802$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f89…1008backed Yes	1c	1,596$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	4c	1,569$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.98	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3088…d7bdbacked Yes	5c	1,556$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,474$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.09	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x628a…2971backed Yes	6c	1,453$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.27	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ca…52fbbacked Yes	4c	1,452$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a8…306cbacked Yes	4c	1,440$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d23…cdabbacked Yes	6c	1,362$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9356…6857backed Yes	6c	1,345$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d74…49edbacked Yes	4c	1,270$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff1…67a0backed Yes	6c	1,240$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0893…88b0backed Yes	4c	1,174$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa20d…63a5backed Yes	4c	1,110$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x087e…5d8ebacked Yes	4c	1,106$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.66	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f5b…717abacked Yes	4c	1,090$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.78	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcd11…b7cabacked Yes	6c	1,072$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b1…396abacked Yes	4c	988$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9073…d837backed Yes	4c	773$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf7b…8a77backed Yes	4c	726$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae3…5c8abacked Yes	4c	680$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	571.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcac…f9d0backed Yes	5c	449$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	421.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	4c	417.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.26	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes	3c	335.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	5c	328.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes	4c	318.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1560-1599 tweets in April 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event