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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$666,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $666,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a28…0575backed Yes0c17,642$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2757…cb0abacked Yes0c17,642$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b4…15b2backed Yes0c17,642$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37df…cd2abacked Yes0c17,642$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…3fe1backed Yes0c17,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ea…4f53backed Yes0c17,540$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81db…2f49backed Yes0c13,462$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.46100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b1…f556backed Yes0c12,009$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%0 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12470%0 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc6…80c9backed Yes0c11,462$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ea…bd60backed Yes0c11,462$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.46110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc69…b1acbacked Yes0c11,462$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8d…c26dbacked Yes0c11,420$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9383…65dfbacked Yes0c11,362$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8383…476fbacked Yes0c11,362$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a94…ecdcbacked Yes0c11,362$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46c2…611bbacked Yes0c11,362$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb0…d489backed Yes0c11,362$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d2…20dcbacked Yes0c11,362$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2cd…8019backed Yes0c11,362$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee55…1babbacked Yes0c11,334$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.33100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca3…1288backed Yes0c11,324$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e5…947ebacked Yes0c11,314$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa17e…3fbdbacked Yes0c11,314$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e10…e35abacked Yes0c11,314$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…36cbbacked Yes0c11,314$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da4…30efbacked Yes0c11,314$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ae…927bbacked Yes0c11,314$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ef…0607backed Yes0c11,314$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ab…f0dfbacked Yes0c11,314$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c11,312$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.311290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1189…1860backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac02…99c5backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb827…664abacked Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852c…31a8backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b33…c174backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2724…7490backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…2e63backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3adc…5aeabacked Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993b…4c68backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd8…38a7backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1efd…1edebacked Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9625…0135backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5416…6c49backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a8…60a3backed Yes0c11,259$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9b…fa85backed Yes1c2,448$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4993…d909backed Yes1c2,446$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4703…fc36backed Yes1c2,389$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08f…038ebacked Yes1c2,303$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f2e…bed8backed Yes1c2,245$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.