Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in April 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc0b6c87369cf86b37ff75cccc583d4503cc2baf6b996be5e4519d1ef919f0f3

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $118,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,046 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,548$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.05	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d78…ca7ebacked Yes	5c	2,363$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8931…fb94backed Yes	5c	2,255$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc269…c640backed Yes	5c	1,785$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a4…0485backed Yes	1c	1,625$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…5794backed Yes	1c	1,618$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x589d…99a4backed Yes	5c	1,504$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.68	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	6cpaid	+262.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42d0…e451backed Yes	5c	1,495$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a53…5510backed Yes	6c	1,454$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf358…8d88backed Yes	5c	1,265$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddf4…149fbacked Yes	6c	1,206$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8036backed Yes	6c	1,202$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4878…5760backed Yes	6c	1,176$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa80f…f6e3backed Yes	5c	1,094$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec48…c1ddbacked Yes	5c	1,090$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e78bbacked Yes	5c	1,038$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.75	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa921…ee49backed Yes	5c	1,030$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.56	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd728…0a95backed Yes	5c	1,021$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83cd…81f0backed Yes	5c	978$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf9e…128abacked Yes	6c	920$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a4…8c7bbacked Yes	5c	873$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.29	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+171.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	1c	846.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf20…67aebacked Yes	7c	795.57$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.02	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d73…bfdabacked Yes	5c	792$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc145…3f23backed Yes	4c	720$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4487…aacdbacked Yes	5c	695$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.14	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	5c	673.49$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.09	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	619.9$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes	2c	520.7$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	4c	499.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed Yes	4c	471.4$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	6c	442.68$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.66	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3815…4b24backed Yes	4c	420$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes	5c	404.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.31	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	3c	404.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	394.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2818…4992backed Yes	6c	337.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	9cpaid	+138.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb36a…91a4backed Yes	4c	320$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	5c	296.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.43	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	5c	276.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	272.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	262.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5d…0b2dbacked Yes	6c	235$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ace…ef05backed Yes	6c	232$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in April 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event