Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in April 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953557e149962101624587564bdd2fc2be69bde9256a101ab9ed204e8f12b72b

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $344,792
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,792 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	22,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes	0c	22,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	47	0%0 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes	0c	19,998$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	0%0 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…3fe1backed Yes	0c	14,338$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67c2…b38fbacked Yes	0c	14,338$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0440…4280backed Yes	0c	14,338$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc2…35adbacked Yes	0c	14,338$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	10	0%0 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9625…0135backed Yes	0c	14,338$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	10	0%0 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac6…d5b6backed Yes	0c	14,338$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	9	0%0 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x403e…4a9cbacked Yes	0c	14,338$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56ea…4f53backed Yes	0c	14,293$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	14	0%0 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7592…3cf8backed Yes	0c	14,281$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	9	0%0 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40a8…60a3backed Yes	0c	14,233$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	9	0%0 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x042c…6f51backed Yes	0c	14,173$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.17	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3687…49f5backed Yes	0c	11,548$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…f500backed Yes	1c	1,491$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in April 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event