Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1600-1679 tweets in April 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe521fa28519365b83108b0c1547a85af00c1fc02afc1810bb433582cdfbe5586

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $133,151
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $97,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,151 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4e8d…c442backed Yes	4c	4,225$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ad…5b50backed Yes	5c	2,992$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa51…ef1bbacked Yes	5c	2,853$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.94	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	4cpaid	+1,989%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3055…da74backed Yes	4c	2,825$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2122…ae6ebacked Yes	5c	2,236$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9d…8296backed Yes	5c	2,211$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5af0…3621backed Yes	5c	2,167$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9721…e7f2backed Yes	4c	2,157$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c8…e0eebacked Yes	4c	1,953$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,934$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.99	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7381…45e0backed Yes	4c	1,920$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5c…926abacked Yes	4c	1,902$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329e…96b9backed Yes	5c	1,901$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes	1c	1,900$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55f2…ccddbacked Yes	5c	1,870$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9de0…6954backed Yes	5c	1,566$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…df59backed Yes	4c	1,476$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eee…3bacbacked Yes	5c	1,363$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe698…a6c9backed Yes	4c	1,363$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.52	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…71d4backed Yes	4c	1,297$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4af8…ec2cbacked Yes	4c	987$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.48	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	4cpaid	+941.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c81…edb5backed Yes	4c	913$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7043…80afbacked Yes	4c	848$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	5cpaid	+941.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7a…5a39backed Yes	4c	845$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	703.66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c46…9c76backed Yes	4c	696$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcef…19bcbacked Yes	4c	685$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x643b…1722backed Yes	4c	632$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc075…bd46backed Yes	4c	604$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	59	15.3%9 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes	6c	186$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1600-1679 tweets in April 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event