TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$585,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$539,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $585,078 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c11,771$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8735024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c8,018$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.533281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4336…62d5backed Yes10c5,031$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c4,750$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.362,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7304…96bbbacked Yes10c4,596$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085a…55aabacked Yes10c3,890$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7371…8823backed Yes8c3,678$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5fc…7d75backed Yes6c3,548$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb519…481bbacked Yes8c3,281$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…b33ebacked Yes10c3,111$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345a…1ae5backed Yes10c3,060$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x035c…f375backed Yes10c3,006$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…69bbbacked Yes10c2,780$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x626b…be00backed Yes9c2,671$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c81…edb5backed Yes6c2,586$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ff…3851backed Yes9c2,547$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a37…6c02backed Yes12c2,535$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafc1…3e17backed Yes10c2,479$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x364f…f661backed Yes10c2,413$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff2…e90fbacked Yes10c2,405$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde05…5b40backed Yes11c2,356$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2ef…a53fbacked Yes6c2,356$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x736a…c882backed Yes10c2,335$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,330$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.942,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf596…941ebacked Yes11c2,310$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d8…0473backed Yes8c2,280$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1812…a728backed Yes9c2,249$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa80f…f6e3backed Yes11c2,222$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3366…27e0backed Yes6c2,206$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84b…29a7backed Yes11c2,137$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b1…b447backed Yes9c2,105$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc6…dbf1backed Yes9c2,083$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2a…39e0backed Yes10c2,074$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+214.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…c578backed Yes11c2,071$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.67425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x258a…395bbacked Yes10c2,059$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd658…7497backed Yes9c2,047$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2742…f7b8backed Yes12c2,034$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+449.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fef…fe37backed Yes9c2,034$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee8…7fb4backed Yes10c2,027$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12f…9810backed Yes10c1,982$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3782…6e25backed Yes10c1,977$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick11cpaid+371.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa036…0b7ebacked Yes10c1,923$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc6…e3d8backed Yes10c1,905$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c2…c1e6backed Yes11c1,874$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b2…0dbabacked Yes10c1,867$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00d…d269backed Yes10c1,838$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef1…c8fabacked Yes6c1,816$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5794…8c5ebacked Yes11c1,808$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a6…a630backed Yes12c1,802$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6231…1de9backed Yes12c1,799$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d10…6fedbacked Yes10c1,787$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd41a…8921backed Yes12c1,786$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83b…040fbacked Yes10c1,785$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95fe…d057backed Yes8c1,781$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197e…c5abbacked Yes9c1,769$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713a…4594backed Yes10c1,767$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c8…f5bdbacked Yes1c1,765$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55e0…1cfcbacked Yes9c1,696$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f5…6fa8backed Yes7c1,691$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2b…4fa5backed Yes9c1,669$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1376…b7c5backed Yes10c1,668$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdee9…e07bbacked Yes10c1,649$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf667…2c66backed Yes8c1,617$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef3…17bcbacked Yes8c1,568$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1698…8844backed Yes10c1,551$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…ccccbacked Yes9c1,481$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8421…5d67backed Yes9c1,438$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3580…53c3backed Yes7c1,388$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddb…14c2backed Yes9c1,387$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x484f…c227backed Yes12c1,361$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a36…df95backed Yes9c1,360$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d7…10edbacked Yes5c1,307$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…ac1bbacked Yes9c1,285$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094c…76c3backed Yes10c1,278$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929c…4421backed Yes9c1,260$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3d…54f4backed Yes8c1,229$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80bb…f038backed Yes9c1,228$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef6…7d9fbacked Yes9c1,224$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…738abacked Yes9c1,209$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaed1…4df7backed Yes9c1,203$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae08…c9f2backed Yes10c1,201$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a49…9c87backed Yes8c1,179$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba9…57febacked Yes9c1,125$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd062…72f0backed Yes9c1,105$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes4c1,091$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.451,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4beb…52a0backed Yes5c1,088$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e82…2192backed Yes9c1,085$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1d…fecebacked Yes9c1,075$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe178…a163backed Yes9c1,073$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…9a16backed Yes10c1,071$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,051$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.796915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x122d…4ee6backed Yes9c1,048$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8938…d959backed Yes9c1,047$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa0…a7c5backed Yes11c1,044$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253b…9262backed Yes9c1,038$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec8…fd95backed Yes9c1,020$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x997f…8716backed Yes5c1,004$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c8…e0eebacked Yes9c997$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758c…8707backed Yes10c993$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf758…82b3backed Yes9c984$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.