Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in April 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6221324186bdce00e8ad0ee705ab52032803891dab6c76980e61f05977c24ef2

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $246,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $209,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,130 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x96fe…be22backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31e5…04debacked Yes	0c	7,520$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0066…9032backed Yes	0c	4,554$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	3,805$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.11	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,535$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4db4…29e8backed Yes	2c	2,759$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes	2c	2,500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.16	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeefc…8218backed Yes	3c	2,483$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9acc…9533backed Yes	2c	2,435$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x97c3…0100backed Yes	3c	2,426$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,373$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.54	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ec0…798bbacked Yes	3c	2,353$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7953…1199backed Yes	6c	2,333$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x769c…121cbacked Yes	3c	2,323$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb62…60fcbacked Yes	3c	2,167$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,152$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.15	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4261…8d5bbacked Yes	2c	2,065$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+3.5wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae11…6fa3backed Yes	2c	2,034$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.82	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1051…ec4bbacked Yes	2c	1,864$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe956…97a3backed Yes	1c	1,659$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfeab…5027backed Yes	3c	1,512$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0b0…bad9backed Yes	2c	1,456$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.03	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec75…de71backed Yes	6c	1,387$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d9…8665backed Yes	2c	1,304$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.69	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf962…c284backed Yes	2c	1,276$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed7d…8fd5backed Yes	3c	1,258$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.71	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8036backed Yes	2c	1,236$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	1c	1,163$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2b…d581backed Yes	13c	1,125$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.94	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4a…de4dbacked Yes	5c	1,092$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fa…26c2backed Yes	3c	1,043$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab32…e7fbbacked Yes	6c	1,034$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe629…d62bbacked Yes	2c	1,013$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32c4…e64ebacked Yes	3c	997$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x002c…4167backed Yes	3c	985$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe94f…d6e5backed Yes	2c	982$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf20c…d5b8backed Yes	2c	964$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7217…9c40backed Yes	2c	960$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf9e…128abacked Yes	2c	957$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba4b…71b2backed Yes	3c	852$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd64…0a9bbacked Yes	5c	795$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.34	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5279…5aabbacked Yes	5c	769$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d6…3c06backed Yes	5c	767$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	2c	723.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdadc…c323backed Yes	3c	614.02$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.19	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	573.27$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3c5…3a78backed Yes	5c	485$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	392$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes	6c	191.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	87	12.6%11 W · 76 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 58 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in April 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event