TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x88a4…d091

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tweets, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 52 out of 100; worst Weather at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT267.7%2 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+254.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.24
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.12
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.36
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.57
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+2,928.3%+$625.88
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.92
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.22
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.05
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.53
Will White House post 100-119 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.32
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.06
Will White House post 80-99 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.15
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.66
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.34
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.68
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.98
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.88
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.65
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.05
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.64
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$321.17
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+6,099.9%+$3,640.38
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.86
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.9
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on April 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.31
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.55
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.03
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.05
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.63
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.37
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.89
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.68
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.21
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,023Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,022.71
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.53
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.06
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.3
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.16
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+216.7%+$530.74
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.83
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+127.5%+$909.36
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$312.96
All 21 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" during NYC rally?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$555.05
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.