Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7abedf40155a520adf7ff32f3468e603c27af9b9e4cef374dc6017888748bb1a

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $531,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $267,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $531,427 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	1c	34,075$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.55	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	27,907$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.94	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x302f…a568backed Yes	0c	18,002$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+272.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b57…71d6backed Yes	1c	13,681$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.07	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	0c	11,244$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.31	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	10,491$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	0c	9,476$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.9	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	0c	9,453$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.81	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6173…d511backed Yes	2c	9,214$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.46	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf72…6378backed Yes	1c	8,514$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.48	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	6,949$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.92	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes	0c	6,183$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	5,648$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.71	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	0c	5,416$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.66	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,193$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes	0c	4,502$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes	1c	4,328$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	1c	4,050$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.08	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	1c	3,559$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.87	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	1c	3,459$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.65	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	3,265$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.87	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed Yes	0c	3,152$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+254.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes	0c	3,058$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	2,507$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.42	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9aee…acacbacked Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	2,405$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes	1c	2,102$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	99	19.2%19 W · 80 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes	1c	2,020$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.22	95	11.6%11 W · 84 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	1,964$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.57	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	1,806$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.38	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	1c	1,763$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…fa65backed Yes	1c	1,647$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,581$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x776d…a16bbacked Yes	1c	1,391$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+136.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,385$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.13	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,290$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	746.89$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	744.52$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	2c	723.19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	617.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes	3c	417.3$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	60	15%9 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event