Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdde603e2e5502052dfa5212836ca6c2c7ae8bf677d9604a011b5ad614ba79921

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $410,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $220,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,360 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	15,817$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.64	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes	0c	15,668$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.42	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	0c	15,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	13,992$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	10,777$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6173…d511backed Yes	2c	9,936$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.36	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcded…b1ecbacked Yes	0c	7,505$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes	1c	6,910$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	5,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	4,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	1c	3,596$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.96	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	1c	3,162$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.53	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	1c	3,086$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.54	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	3c	3,020$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.69	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	1c	2,953$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	2,894$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	8c	2,558$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.4	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,503$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	2,193$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.79	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	2,105$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.71	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,916$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.75	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	1,912$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes	9c	1,854$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.84	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	2c	1,791$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.01	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	1,700$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	2c	1,671$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes	1c	1,500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	86	19.8%17 W · 69 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,410$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.21	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	1,272$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.16	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed Yes	10c	1,256$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.69	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	9c	1,242$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.52	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	944.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.17	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	824.47$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.96	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1aa…6ba0backed Yes	8c	811.49$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.13	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	806.69$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.53	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed Yes	8c	799.95$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	773.27$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.06	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes	1c	717.85$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	6c	717.83$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.62	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	635.45$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.85	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	3c	622.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.06	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	4c	615.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	583.87$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ec…d3f7backed Yes	6c	494.28$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.42	62	11.3%7 W · 55 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	5c	468.11$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33dc…5051backed Yes	10c	465$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.49	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd768…5105backed Yes	10c	455$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	9c	454.5$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.91	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc30e…4bf0backed Yes	6c	445.61$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.74	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	6c	415.22$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…06fabacked Yes	8c	404.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	8c	399.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes	4c	345.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.21	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	5c	333.11$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes	6c	326.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	58	19%11 W · 47 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	77	31.2%24 W · 53 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	0%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4577…1b15backed Yes	6c	295.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6090…6dbbbacked Yes	9c	251.79$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.66	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86e…b3e1backed Yes	9c	202$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	68	16.2%11 W · 57 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	8c	199.93$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	192.83$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc12…c877backed Yes	9c	190.89$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xea88…3818backed Yes	9c	190.46$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.14	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	10c	182.37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.11	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes	9c	172.64$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6018…32c3backed Yes	10c	164.26$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…1c87backed Yes	9c	160.09$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79e9…80b1backed Yes	8c	146$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes	9c	119.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event