TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x24da…02c6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT7429.7%22 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 74 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+182%+$72.85
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.92
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+203%+$207.96
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.84
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$390
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.51
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$322.74
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+204.6%+$610
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.36
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.7
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.75
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.01
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.49
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.55
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.31
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.06
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.99
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+291.9%+$409.65
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.15
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.39
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.36
Showing 25 of 74 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: OG vs Natus Vincere (BO1)backed OG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+100%+$15
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Tidebound (BO1)backed Team Tidebound · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+26.6%+$10.08
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO1)backed Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+56%+$35.9
All 3 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grizzlies vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+26.6%+$10.5
Trail Blazers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+51.1%+$20.3
Lakers vs. Hornetsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+49.3%+$9.9
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs GamerLegion (BO3)backed GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Counter-Strike: NRG vs fnatic (BO3)backed fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+59%+$36.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$137
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$54
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rangers vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11.7
Lightning vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bears vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$76
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$39.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.