Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2b223d87f3a8afad055c2294e16030563322918f37709b065a12456375c019b

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $515,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $247,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $515,860 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	35,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	17,847$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	16,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	15,467$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.54	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	14,318$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.53	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	14,007$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.37	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	11,851$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825.06	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	10,316$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.49	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	10,126$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.02	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	8,980$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.89	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	0c	6,910$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.64	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	6,670$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.41	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	9c	6,159$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.74	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	15c	5,400$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$810	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d4…ef35backed Yes	1c	4,200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.99	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	5c	3,858$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.03	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	3,803$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.37	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…12bdbacked Yes	18c	3,738$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.07	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	6c	3,530$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.2	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe9…25f7backed Yes	22c	3,455$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.38	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	20c	3,269$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.22	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	3,100$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.08	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	3,038$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.2	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	3,028$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.83	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.56	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	2,868$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.73	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	1c	2,659$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.19	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa13f…1e76backed Yes	20c	2,651$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.13	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	2,415$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fca…f1f0backed Yes	7c	2,011$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	17c	2,000$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	51	0%0 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes	21c	1,939$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.24	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	14c	1,917$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.44	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,910$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	3c	1,747$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.88	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	1c	1,741$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	1c	1,680$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	16c	1,675$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.96	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…964ebacked Yes	25c	1,600$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	10c	1,500$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	1,400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	10c	1,369$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.35	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	17c	1,359$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.69	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	12c	1,300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.94	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa99…fd3fbacked No	78c	1,298$1,012 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.53	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	77cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	4c	1,271$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	8c	1,240$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.2	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	71c	1,219$867 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.78	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	1,200$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	13c	1,200$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.1	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	5c	1,179$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.09	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	12c	1,154$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.66	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	10c	1,000$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	22c	1,000$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	999.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	77c	962.91$746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.32	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	22c	943.68$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.42	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	12c	940.82$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	27c	940.65$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d27…94c9backed Yes	16c	935.25$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.64	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes	18c	918$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.24	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	11c	914.53$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.32	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	26c	903.16$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.6	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes	16c	899.96$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.99	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	4c	899.89$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.18	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	1c	892.88$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	9c	864$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.78	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac3e…e416backed Yes	23c	851.74$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	22c	843.95$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.67	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x083b…3decbacked Yes	19c	822.98$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.39	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-91.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	10c	814.57$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.44	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	11c	809.98$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.05	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe569…fc90backed Yes	18c	773.36$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.21	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	11c	766.78$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.89	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes	16c	759.55$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.93	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No	73c	756.65$551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.34	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	3c	743.42$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes	18c	707.96$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.09	114	24.6%28 W · 86 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	31c	700$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	80c	699.99$557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	11c	695.85$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.48	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes	18c	686.46$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.86	60	15%9 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	2c	680.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9840…2065backed No	78c	643.08$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.08	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	3c	635.16$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.73	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	15c	599.77$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.88	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	19c	588.79$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.1	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	13c	570$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa845…563ebacked Yes	14c	562.81$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.6	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0d…3ec5backed Yes	22c	553.2$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.7	32	25%8 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x890b…2737backed Yes	14c	535$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.9	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes	10c	530.97$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.21	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	13c	516.27$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes	13c	505$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.4	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	21c	500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8829…cfcfbacked Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked No	75c	500$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	50	68%34 W · 16 L	+6.0wins	+0.12per pick	56cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event