Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d40f1be0f444eb83d7b82080b0386afa95342f301ff172bb1f484a1502e83fb

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $240,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $126,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,406 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	10,036$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.62	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	8,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	5,971$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.77	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	2c	4,984$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.65	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	4,789$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	0c	4,600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	2,489$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.17	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,241$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.18	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d27…94c9backed Yes	2c	1,787$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.08	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,715$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	1,592$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.86	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	1,520$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.59	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	4c	1,128$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.4	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	2c	1,100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc267…850fbacked Yes	2c	1,066$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	1,039$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	999.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	3c	934.89$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.31	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	921.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.43	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes	2c	808.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.27	100	36%36 W · 64 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	2c	799.97$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	3c	717.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	4c	657.05$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.87	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	586.04$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.15	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes	2c	555.85$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.63	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	544.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	2c	474.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	3c	400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	396.04$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	388.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.24	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	371.79$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	350.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	304.1$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac3e…e416backed Yes	5c	293.23$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event