TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,088,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$716,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,088,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes2c65,788$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.9113616.2%22 W · 114 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-59.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c18,875$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.091,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes4c17,712$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.6263414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes6c14,372$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.5745715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No77c14,171$10,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,330.0616969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes31c13,264$4,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,046.315649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c11,773$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3572,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes8c11,463$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.5524815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes5c11,287$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.4232716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes3c11,271$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.584850%24 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes7c10,410$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.2850913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes3c10,239$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.571346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes3c10,114$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.066822.1%15 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes13c9,500$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21425413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes4c9,349$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.731308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes1c9,104$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1175909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes12c8,839$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.7851410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes2c8,440$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6327820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes11c7,462$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79123019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe9…25f7backed Yes8c7,291$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.161118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes4c7,210$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0514829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes22c6,900$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.1839723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes9c6,388$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.631,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes1c6,300$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5311111.7%13 W · 98 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+93.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes2c6,018$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.13134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes10c5,889$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.191,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes7c5,840$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.573650%18 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,511$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.443281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes31c5,375$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.9153222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes1c5,220$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0830310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No80c5,034$4,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.2119927.6%55 W · 144 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes2c5,020$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.465588.2%46 W · 512 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes17c4,626$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.5415136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No69c4,477$3,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.2515844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes6c4,213$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2117824.7%44 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes2c4,199$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5616427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3041…acf2backed Yes8c4,179$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.161625%4 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes19c4,134$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.6229227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes5c4,105$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4516023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes13c4,066$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.810432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes1c4,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.995718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes16c3,939$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.1214413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes10c3,843$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.4948310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes2c3,754$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7824114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes19c3,673$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6806320.6%13 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes7c3,653$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.246137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes2c3,642$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.236113.1%8 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes17c3,505$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.6714928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes6c3,497$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2811418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa845…563ebacked Yes13c3,401$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.755433.3%18 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes13c3,263$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4205141.2%21 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes35c3,139$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.3246521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes1c3,124$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5611325.7%29 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes4c3,115$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0941310.7%44 W · 369 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid+12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes1c3,107$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.013644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc585…12b7backed No72c3,061$2,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1299…f6b1backed Yes0c3,051$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.261513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-76.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes17c3,023$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51013817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes2c2,890$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5516814.9%25 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick15cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c2,886$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.315525.6%31 W · 521 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,806$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.31,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes25c2,673$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.7531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes9c2,660$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.934719.1%9 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes12c2,652$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4930317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes27c2,549$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.3617324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes3c2,526$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.663423.5%12 W · 330 L+1.4wins0.00per pick3cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes21c2,499$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.6323212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes3c2,445$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0231242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c2,440$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1588210.3%91 W · 791 L-4.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9840…2065backed Yes3c2,415$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes1c2,359$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1182614.9%123 W · 703 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes14c2,275$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.387010%7 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes14c2,169$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.8278111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes10c2,166$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3413215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes2c2,160$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2629113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f4e…a12fbacked Yes18c2,036$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed No75c2,022$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.682748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf37…2454backed No62c2,000$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7581353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16017723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes9c2,000$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.366230.6%19 W · 43 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes19c1,995$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.4821215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes23c1,968$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.0163021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes9c1,940$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5799410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes2c1,881$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.212611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes5c1,851$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe8…6e25backed No71c1,809$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.17650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes9c1,798$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9121816.1%35 W · 183 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b85…e4a2backed Yes5c1,795$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+91.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca7…960dbacked Yes8c1,791$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes11c1,783$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2915631.4%49 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d5…559ebacked Yes17c1,760$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012532%8 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes12c1,756$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.925416.7%9 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No75c1,739$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.67439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed Yes6c1,637$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.233221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes4c1,597$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.756334.9%22 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes2c1,583$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3811220.5%23 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes33c1,554$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.312118.2%22 W · 99 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes2c1,500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.543719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x833e…6144backed Yes29c1,467$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes1c1,467$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8333422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.