Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce5342b62a13a7f3288085c32c2125448bfd6bfce8676d94ff7bf31d9323b545

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $330,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $123,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,812 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	21,921$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.24	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	17,829$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	12,025$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.08	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	10,518$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.84	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	7,500$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.42	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,270$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.17	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	5,407$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.46	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	5,180$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	9c	3,922$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.1	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	1c	3,710$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	3,569$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.58	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,750$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	2,722$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.93	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	1c	2,449$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	13c	2,295$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.97	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,230$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.16	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d27…94c9backed Yes	9c	2,204$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.35	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	2c	2,111$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.97	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	2,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	11c	1,966$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.47	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	7c	1,845$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.7	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	12c	1,799$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.29	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	1c	1,732$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes	14c	1,687$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.37	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	15c	1,680$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.24	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	10c	1,625$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.77	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	1c	1,510$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	3c	1,501$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	1,500$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.2	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	11c	1,317$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.9	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4efc…dd07backed Yes	8c	1,306$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	6c	1,266$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.99	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	1,240$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	8c	1,118$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.45	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	10c	1,114$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.18	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,082$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.31	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	15c	914.79$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.32	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	6c	888.89$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.35	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc267…850fbacked Yes	13c	859.94$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.69	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	774.29$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.33	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	6c	736.18$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.13	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes	7c	639.29$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.35	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes	8c	635.28$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.77	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	14c	602.12$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.3	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	10c	562.7$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.59	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	8c	553.88$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.31	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	5c	527.2$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b89…1610backed Yes	2c	509.93$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb015…42c3backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	71	14.1%10 W · 61 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3a…b7febacked Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	6c	499.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	7c	454.72$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.39	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	6c	444.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1d…9529backed Yes	8c	431.37$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Yes	13c	424.28$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.98	152	12.5%19 W · 133 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…a300backed Yes	12c	415.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes	4c	400$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	100	36%36 W · 64 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc8…9e87backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+90.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e3…24ffbacked Yes	4c	389.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33dc…5051backed Yes	14c	384.36$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.86	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd71…2b92backed Yes	7c	370.08$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.91	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+131.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bae…5199backed Yes	6c	347.21$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	6c	298.67$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	9c	296.62$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.69	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	6c	287.41$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.49	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	5c	287.06$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	9c	284.26$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.99	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	17c	283.4$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.18	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5a…0a70backed Yes	10c	271.87$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.32	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+152.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2311…99ecbacked Yes	13c	267.54$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.68	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	12c	266$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.94	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53d8…8082backed Yes	11c	259.84$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.32	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	8c	248.17$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x890b…2737backed Yes	9c	239.24$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.68	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	7c	238.88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x582c…eb16backed Yes	8c	233.86$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	116	13.8%16 W · 100 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Yes	12c	232.42$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	14c	216.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.69	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	9c	213.21$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes	9c	205.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	184	19%35 W · 149 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	15c	203.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	15c	203.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…b555backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e40…0ce1backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	25%8 W · 24 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe667…307bbacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+159.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc816…4b74backed Yes	7c	194.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	7c	194.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb08a…d41abacked Yes	11c	193.9$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.95	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	7c	193.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8793…4b62backed Yes	11c	187.77$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.34	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-85%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes	14c	182.8$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.59	108	20.4%22 W · 86 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef6c…33efbacked Yes	7c	181.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc30e…4bf0backed Yes	14c	174.63$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc793…02a9backed Yes	10c	173.89$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.27	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event