TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xac6b…a962

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
242
Categories scored
3
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: UFC, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT15932.7%52 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 159 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+468.4%+$374.75
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+114.5%+$251.93
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+176.4%+$141.11
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+46.1%+$50.69
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$95
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$117.39
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$572Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+154.2%+$882.99
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$788Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$788.49
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.61
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$191.98
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$65.44
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 159 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT8259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 82 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Paddy Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$338.3
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Cory Sandhagen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Brandon Royval · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$212.5
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Nikita Krylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Elisha Ellison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
UFC 329: Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Adrian Yanez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$58.91
UFC 329: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Kai Kamaka III · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 329: Wang Cong vs. Tracy Cortez (Women's Flyweight, Early Prelims)backed Wang Cong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.6
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Manuel Torres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.26
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Shara Magomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+64%+$64
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Nazim Sadykhov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$23.57
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Ikram Aliskerov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Michal Oleksiejczuk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Farman Hasanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.29
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Nursulton Ruziboev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$36.41
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Javier Reyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kyoji Horiguchi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.68
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ion Cutelaba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.5
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Christian Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+43%+$43
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Andre Lima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Melissa Mullins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Mitch Raposo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+126.4%+$151.68
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Michael Aswell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Showing 25 of 82 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.