TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bia Mesquitaof Melissa Mullins, Bia Mesquita
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$131,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,253 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x39d3…9ef0backed Melissa Mullins13c15,061$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.9210035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Melissa Mullins15c9,754$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.595540%22 W · 33 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Melissa Mullins15c9,136$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.854040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Melissa Mullins18c6,636$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.578253.7%44 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Melissa Mullins16c4,164$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.8120048.5%97 W · 103 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ad…1b86backed Melissa Mullins12c3,951$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.585330.2%16 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Melissa Mullins13c3,680$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.47128.2%20 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Bia Mesquita61c3,295$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.918032.8%59 W · 121 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Melissa Mullins14c3,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4204721.3%10 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Melissa Mullins13c2,785$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3621457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Melissa Mullins15c2,597$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.5335648.6%173 W · 183 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Melissa Mullins14c2,297$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.4626736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Melissa Mullins30c1,685$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.4710546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Melissa Mullins16c1,324$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.828636%31 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf83…3385backed Melissa Mullins40c1,163$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Melissa Mullins12c1,150$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1384233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Melissa Mullins13c1,150$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.462846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bia Mesquita62c1,101$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.6815939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Bia Mesquita70c1,040$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.7212451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Bia Mesquita73c1,028$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.671258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Melissa Mullins38c1,000$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.8753956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Melissa Mullins16c999.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1608461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Melissa Mullins15c897.82$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.063438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked Melissa Mullins24c890.04$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.853839.5%15 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Melissa Mullins15c840$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126254%1 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Melissa Mullins11c829.61$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.057159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Melissa Mullins33c825.73$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.4915933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Melissa Mullins15c798.67$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.85418.5%10 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8709…7d3dbacked Melissa Mullins13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Melissa Mullins14c703.03$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.074348.8%21 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Bia Mesquita66c675.86$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.629250%46 W · 46 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Bia Mesquita80c645.91$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.114461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Melissa Mullins15c633.33$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f49…231dbacked Melissa Mullins21c625.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.963745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Melissa Mullins17c588.55$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.323636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb73…1e52backed Melissa Mullins35c576.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009452.1%49 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…e8c1backed Melissa Mullins19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004425%11 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Melissa Mullins17c484.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6533132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Melissa Mullins13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Bia Mesquita62c352.33$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.0610746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed Bia Mesquita64c323.98$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Melissa Mullins13c313.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.762050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Melissa Mullins12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Bia Mesquita78c285.41$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.536368.3%43 W · 20 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Melissa Mullins36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Melissa Mullins16c274.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.764870.8%34 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Melissa Mullins16c269$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Melissa Mullins30c250.49$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.384748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8c…c014backed Melissa Mullins20c247.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.581618.8%3 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Melissa Mullins41c240.81$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.565560%33 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83bd…3f07backed Melissa Mullins13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd3…c8ebbacked Melissa Mullins13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+49.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Melissa Mullins12c228$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.939851%50 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xded6…f649backed Melissa Mullins24c224.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559451.1%48 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Melissa Mullins16c224.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5490553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc7…b583backed Melissa Mullins13c223.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.111040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Bia Mesquita75c219.23$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.636756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Melissa Mullins15c219$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2960backed Melissa Mullins48c207.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Melissa Mullins16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3211937.8%45 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Bia Mesquita62c199.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7623961.5%147 W · 92 L+16.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Melissa Mullins13c192.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252825%7 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Melissa Mullins13c192.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Bia Mesquita63c178.91$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.24146.3%19 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+46.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Melissa Mullins36c170.87$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8122334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Melissa Mullins19c153$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.072867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+42.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Bia Mesquita66c150.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.623548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Melissa Mullins38c144.74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+107.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Melissa Mullins33c137.05$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9715839.2%62 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Melissa Mullins16c135.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5822438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb51…a1a4backed Melissa Mullins14c125.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+51.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31cd…8f69backed Bia Mesquita64c125.16$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x538a…67c1backed Melissa Mullins15c120.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+207.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Melissa Mullins28c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.624851.2%127 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a04…2071backed Melissa Mullins17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209542.1%40 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Melissa Mullins19c116.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.08475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+86.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0817…b071backed Melissa Mullins14c112.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.772733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9277…c2d7backed Melissa Mullins13c112$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.561145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc4…1403backed Melissa Mullins13c111.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.554264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f6b…2a84backed Melissa Mullins36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c3…8270backed Melissa Mullins18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x500c…8acdbacked Melissa Mullins14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151540%6 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+43.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7859…043bbacked Melissa Mullins15c106.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ba…a64bbacked Melissa Mullins13c103.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe23…2041backed Melissa Mullins15c93.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-75.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c36…0f09backed Melissa Mullins13c93.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.131154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c92…641ebacked Melissa Mullins13c92.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-58.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9413…11acbacked Bia Mesquita78c92.22$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.299459.6%56 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Melissa Mullins13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.79637.5%36 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Melissa Mullins12c87.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.514327.9%12 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Melissa Mullins36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012845.3%58 W · 70 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd051…53e1backed Bia Mesquita79c82.1$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.245271.2%37 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x820b…d27abacked Melissa Mullins15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…b959backed Melissa Mullins19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Melissa Mullins20c73.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5513636.8%50 W · 86 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Bia Mesquita67c63.48$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1913951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a3d…f2ffbacked Melissa Mullins18c61.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Melissa Mullins19c59.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Bia Mesquita63c53.95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8938153.5%204 W · 177 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8106…bd36backed Melissa Mullins38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.