UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d90a82f39807c484785a2a732e6bab4f5f96e0c1c6081eed5a6b312ff154496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 56c | 3,304$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.14 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.16 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 56c | 1,105$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.67 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 44c | 750$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Under | 42c | 449.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.99 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 44c | 420$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.25 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 44c | 318.18$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…77e3backed Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 45c | 64.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 63.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…ed79backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b8…6e4cbacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…8c4abacked Over | 54c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca7…e965backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)Bia Mesquita won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.