Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1682ab766f78aa241a54c69c19c3f34d92f049edb7b6f2e1ebbf8a5921b337
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 45c | 9,103$4,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,102.9 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 49c | 6,737$3,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,449.52 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 20c | 6,388$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.17 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 43c | 4,470$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548.52 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 58c | 3,878$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.4 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 25c | 3,787$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.54 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked No | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.95 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 51c | 2,978$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.08 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 50c | 2,772$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.26 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 31c | 2,476$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.31 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 43c | 2,427$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.71 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 51c | 2,339$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.85 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,197$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.65 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…04a0backed Yes | 52c | 2,135$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 39c | 2,126$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.86 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,779$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.3 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 8c | 1,745$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 1,741$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.53 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 30c | 1,732$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.75 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 13c | 1,641$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.28 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 1,610$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.38 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 51c | 1,577$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.27 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 53c | 1,554$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.6 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 1,489$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.12 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes | 44c | 1,484$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.88 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes | 58c | 1,479$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.05 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 53c | 1,352$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.33 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 1,228$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.93 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…078abacked No | 69c | 1,222$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.26 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…d22ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,146$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 42c | 1,077$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.95 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 43c | 1,038$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.44 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,020$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.35 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 54c | 1,014$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.57 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,004$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.79 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 35c | 1,001$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.32 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 58c | 1,000$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 10c | 999.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 56c | 995.05$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.83 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 24c | 989.97$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.49 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 60c | 853.2$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.55 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 53c | 848.32$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.71 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 39c | 837.67$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.45 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 28c | 822.3$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.49 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 13c | 812.87$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 31c | 810.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.42 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 48c | 805.01$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.89 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 49c | 799.99$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.99 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked Yes | 54c | 798.4$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 62c | 786.44$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.47 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 741.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 41c | 725.35$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.49 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 721$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.7 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 705$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.45 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 53c | 667.97$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.89 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 10c | 633$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 624.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 56c | 588.52$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.89 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 45c | 582.6$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.55 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…a8cebacked Yes | 6c | 554.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 537.67$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.65 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 57c | 536.07$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.03 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…146cbacked Yes | 48c | 517.36$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.9 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked No | 51c | 491.22$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.55 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 51c | 489.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 69c | 477.23$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.56 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 466.3$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…c9a0backed Yes | 49c | 464.96$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.96 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 64c | 461$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.66 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…c358backed Yes | 62c | 449.3$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 59c | 448.34$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.7 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 49c | 448.1$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.39 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…4278backed No | 62c | 443.06$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.02 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +44%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 20c | 442.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 438.88$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.53 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 427.31$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.94 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…5610backed Yes | 43c | 422.97$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.2 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 29c | 419.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf4…07c0backed No | 58c | 400$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 399.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 30c | 398.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.23 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…7ec1backed Yes | 31c | 397.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe106…4529backed Yes | 31c | 392.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 386.5$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.13 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd4…d241backed Yes | 75c | 384.21$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 11c | 382.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…ae9cbacked Yes | 40c | 372.32$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…2095backed Yes | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…4c45backed Yes | 64c | 349$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.05 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 31c | 337.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.2 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 26c | 334.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked No | 70c | 331.42$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 22c | 328.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 17c | 309.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 42c | 304$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…a071backed Yes | 15c | 300.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.