TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,963 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes45c9,103$4,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,102.921429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed No49c6,737$3,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.5210043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes20c6,388$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.1763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No43c4,470$1,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,548.529233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes58c3,878$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes25c3,787$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.5463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked No34c3,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.959348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes51c2,978$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.0853522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed No50c2,772$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.2616222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes31c2,476$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.319935.4%35 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No43c2,427$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.7156429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes51c2,339$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8543719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes29c2,197$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.6540719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cd2…04a0backed Yes52c2,135$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.3825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No39c2,126$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.8622160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes54c1,779$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.322325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes8c1,745$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.69733%32 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes41c1,741$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.5376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No30c1,732$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.7515844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes13c1,641$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.281834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No73c1,610$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.389057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No51c1,577$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.275944.1%26 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No53c1,554$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.62268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c1,489$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.126030%18 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes44c1,484$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.882128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes58c1,479$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.053636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes53c1,352$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.3368615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c1,228$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.9338848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f1…078abacked No69c1,222$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.267133.8%24 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d22ebacked Yes70c1,146$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes42c1,077$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.9588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes43c1,038$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.4415929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes29c1,020$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.351,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes54c1,014$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.5712642.9%54 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes54c1,004$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.7910536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No35c1,001$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.327042.9%30 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No58c1,000$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41912429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes10c999.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.322610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes56c995.05$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.8388018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes24c989.97$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.491,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No60c853.2$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.5516941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes53c848.32$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.7157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes39c837.67$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.4533231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes28c822.3$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.4927224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes13c812.87$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6919229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes31c810.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4239723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes48c805.01$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.8920432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes49c799.99$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.996930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14db…7cafbacked Yes54c798.4$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No62c786.44$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.4746137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes8c741.62$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3784616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes41c725.35$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.4923222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c721$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.78532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c705$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.4530955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes73c684.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No53c667.97$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8919124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes10c633$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7225311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes7c624.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.722,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes56c588.52$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.8911633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No45c582.6$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.5514751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x39d7…a8cebacked Yes6c554.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c537.67$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.6524155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes57c536.07$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.0310146.5%47 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes48c517.36$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.911723.1%27 W · 90 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked No51c491.22$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5510730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes51c489.62$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506832.4%22 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No69c477.23$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.564017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c466.3$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3919756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c6f…c9a0backed Yes49c464.96$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.964544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes64c461$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.667251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528a…c358backed Yes62c449.3$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.67560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes59c448.34$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.715631.4%49 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes49c448.1$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3950828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2535…4278backed No62c443.06$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.021283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+44%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes20c442.58$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9014923.5%35 W · 114 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c438.88$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5328723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No52c427.31$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.9451018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8c8e…5610backed Yes43c422.97$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.23834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes29c419.5$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.775122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf4…07c0backed No58c400$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-75.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No68c399.99$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12616750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No30c398.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.2345511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x890e…7ec1backed Yes31c397.14$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe106…4529backed Yes31c392.14$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.871040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No46c386.5$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1310143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bd4…d241backed Yes75c384.21$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.761353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed Yes11c382.72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.216056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736e…ae9cbacked Yes40c372.32$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.871216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda6…2095backed Yes59c350$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.52425%6 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3949…4c45backed Yes64c349$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.057140.8%29 W · 42 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed No31c337.85$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.211831.4%37 W · 81 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes26c334.57$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.291,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2379…178ebacked No70c331.42$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.435827.6%16 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes22c328.71$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4223019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8734833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd97f…7813backed Yes17c309.74$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1515928.3%45 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes42c304$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6512543.2%54 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x107c…a071backed Yes15c300.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.75920.3%12 W · 47 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13218511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.