UFC · resolved market
UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c5895028ee6c15e4da7b73884819bc86897c08a890cf76712b09ac37de5d82d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gable Stevesonof Gable Steveson, Elisha Ellison
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $792,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $814,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $792,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 134,000$13,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,585.9 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 115,000$13,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,719.23 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…59dbbacked Elisha Ellison | 12c | 79,439$9,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,887.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Elisha Ellison | 11c | 32,847$3,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,612.79 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 29,630$3,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,335.93 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 25,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Elisha Ellison | 9c | 14,300$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 12,423$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…e8f1backed Elisha Ellison | 1c | 11,534$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Elisha Ellison | 12c | 10,000$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Elisha Ellison | 10c | 10,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Elisha Ellison | 8c | 9,597$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Elisha Ellison | 3c | 7,792$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.44 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 7,273$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.14 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Elisha Ellison | 9c | 7,024$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.13 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Elisha Ellison | 8c | 5,150$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.97 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc1…692ebacked Elisha Ellison | 10c | 4,896$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…9867backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 4,132$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 3,467$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Elisha Ellison | 10c | 3,030$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…02b2backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 3,006$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Elisha Ellison | 12c | 2,853$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…1ccebacked Elisha Ellison | 11c | 2,809$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…afeabacked Elisha Ellison | 9c | 2,651$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 2,172$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.3 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Elisha Ellison | 6c | 1,865$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4688…c93cbacked Elisha Ellison | 1c | 1,786$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Elisha Ellison | 13c | 1,729$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…e7d0backed Elisha Ellison | 8c | 1,498$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…0359backed Elisha Ellison | 9c | 1,388$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…c014backed Elisha Ellison | 7c | 1,368$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…231dbacked Elisha Ellison | 9c | 1,160$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Elisha Ellison | 10c | 1,098$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Elisha Ellison | 12c | 1,021$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.64 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Elisha Ellison | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1699…058abacked Elisha Ellison | 10c | 952.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c21…3093backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 946.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…77f5backed Elisha Ellison | 9c | 928.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 93 | 64.5%60 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…a822backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 894.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…3e7cbacked Elisha Ellison | 12c | 854.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 840.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…5907backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 784$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…3b18backed Elisha Ellison | 9c | 777.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…2a0fbacked Elisha Ellison | 10c | 772.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b02…7fbdbacked Elisha Ellison | 13c | 757.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9f45backed Elisha Ellison | 13c | 713.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…01a9backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 689.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 689.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…d8c2backed Elisha Ellison | 14c | 684.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…e8c1backed Elisha Ellison | 8c | 647.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 608.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…ab19backed Elisha Ellison | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…1cdbbacked Elisha Ellison | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…6ea2backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 512$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…c508backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…e52ebacked Elisha Ellison | 10c | 494.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Elisha Ellison | 11c | 458.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…4c2ebacked Elisha Ellison | 17c | 428.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…a6d8backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 417.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…0066backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 404.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…6bf7backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 404.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Elisha Ellison | 11c | 398.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…bef3backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 375$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…02a1backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 352.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Elisha Ellison | 16c | 330$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 330$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Elisha Ellison | 9c | 325.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 324.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Elisha Ellison | 9c | 324$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 316.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…58babacked Elisha Ellison | 10c | 306.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Elisha Ellison | 9c | 299$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Elisha Ellison | 17c | 296.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…bc18backed Elisha Ellison | 13c | 296$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Elisha Ellison | 8c | 280.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…1d50backed Elisha Ellison | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…b2c7backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 270.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…0113backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 266.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 255.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…6077backed Elisha Ellison | 8c | 250.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…104abacked Elisha Ellison | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Elisha Ellison | 12c | 247.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 242.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…94e1backed Elisha Ellison | 8c | 240.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Elisha Ellison | 10c | 225$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5186…fee7backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 222.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb27…83b3backed Elisha Ellison | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…19e2backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…fd52backed Elisha Ellison | 11c | 219.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e58…94bdbacked Elisha Ellison | 9c | 219.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721f…748bbacked Elisha Ellison | 9c | 212.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Elisha Ellison | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4c…bb05backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 208.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729f…6130backed Elisha Ellison | 10c | 206.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec8…0eb8backed Elisha Ellison | 12c | 206.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Elisha Ellison win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Gable Steveson win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.