UFC · resolved market
Will Gable Steveson win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55ab4c40ab7f0fb3a58cb1febfe2d9dee88f4975c63123edec6018be231deec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a22…7b00backed Yes | 74c | 3,243$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked No | 26c | 2,585$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.1 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 26c | 2,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.99 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 1,965$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.96 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 24c | 922.25$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.36 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Yes | 77c | 844.74$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.74 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…653ebacked Yes | 74c | 816.02$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.02 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…0bfebacked Yes | 74c | 810.81$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…ab19backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…022cbacked Yes | 71c | 492.96$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Yes | 73c | 324.18$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 26c | 277.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Yes | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 27c | 249.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes | 74c | 179.19$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 74c | 178.38$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cd28backed Yes | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 29c | 157.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…857bbacked Yes | 76c | 141.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Yes | 71c | 140.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…1b3dbacked Yes | 72c | 139.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +6.6wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 29c | 136.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 27c | 127.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 241 | 61.8%149 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…741dbacked Yes | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…175cbacked No | 27c | 47.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 74c | 38.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…77c8backed Yes | 73c | 26.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…e2fabacked Yes | 75c | 25.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…8e66backed Yes | 75c | 21.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…1214backed Yes | 75c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…8275backed Yes | 71c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gable Steveson win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)Gable Steveson won
- Will Elisha Ellison win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.