UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65e42118a5b739f9f6d749b2c70abe594211c6aef8f44fbd77eb11f722c11f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 79c | 58,875$46,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,375.09 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 21c | 53,567$11,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,249.09 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 21c | 32,684$6,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,923.79 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 79c | 20,374$16,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,272.09 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Under | 79c | 2,750$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…724fbacked Under | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 77c | 1,878$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.04 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…d336backed Under | 78c | 1,865$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 23c | 1,311$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.64 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 22c | 927.52$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…fdc1backed Under | 77c | 865$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 21c | 652.38$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Under | 78c | 500.45$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Under | 78c | 490.05$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Over | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 74c | 342.3$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…2a32backed Under | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Under | 78c | 246.15$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 77c | 203.59$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Over | 20c | 177.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…c2d0backed Under | 78c | 123.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 78c | 103$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Under | 77c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…9b09backed Over | 26c | 95.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe346…3071backed Over | 24c | 84.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under | 78c | 83.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…86b1backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 80c | 67.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…b31fbacked Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…58eebacked Under | 80c | 55.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Under | 78c | 39.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed Under | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 16 | 100%16 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Under | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 79c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 79c | 27.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70b4…6815backed Under | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +5.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…4f96backed Under | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 80c | 14.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)Gable Steveson won
- Will Elisha Ellison win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Gable Steveson win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.