TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe523…f087

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
285
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: UFC, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 57 out of 100; worst Chess at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT19152.9%101 W · 90 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
UFC — the 191 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Anthony Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
UFC Fight Night: Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Serghei Spivac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$195.81
UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Jalin Turner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$69.49
UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Vicente Luque · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.55
UFC Fight Night: Louie Sutherland vs. José Montanha (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Louie Sutherland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jan Blachowicz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Gilbert Urbina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$142.31
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Nina Miloševic (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Hailey Cowan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mike Davis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.15
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Steve Erceg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
UFC Fight Night: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Saygid Izagakhmaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Dricus Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$505Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+45.7%+$230.71
UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Mitch Ramirez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Tommy McMillen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$116.3
UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Jose Miguel Delgado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$169.15
UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Seokhyeon Ko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Felipe Franco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$215.43
UFC Fight Night: Damien Anderson vs. Ezra Elliott (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Ezra Elliott · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
UFC Fight Night: Dione Barbosa vs. Anna Melisano (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Anna Melisano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$830Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$416.27
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+85.9%+$434.62
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.89
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Paddy Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+134.5%+$560.47
Showing 25 of 191 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT6726.9%18 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 67 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+599.3%+$1,797.9
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$323.64
Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$144.83
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+243.9%+$195.13
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$92.31
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Mexico vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Mexico vs. England: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$26.67
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 67 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$549Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$270.54
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.78
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.11
Will Chelsea win the 2025 UEFA Conference League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$13.91
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$40.79
Will Manchester City win the 2024-25 FA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$85.38
Will Chelsea beat Flamengo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+71.4%+$10.72
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.