UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Nina Miloševic (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd33b8595b44bccaa073ecac5341e9554a175c2fe20e3acbc3f07c0a2965d6d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nina Miloševicof Hailey Cowan, Nina Miloševic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $354,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Hailey Cowan | 20c | 78,371$15,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,605.21 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Hailey Cowan | 18c | 60,668$10,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,920.17 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nina Miloševic | 80c | 51,826$41,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,365.12 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 37,300$7,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,086.99 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Hailey Cowan | 23c | 29,512$6,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,842.45 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…10f5backed Nina Miloševic | 77c | 18,373$14,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,230.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Hailey Cowan | 17c | 17,083$2,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,844.77 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 15,361$2,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,875.32 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 13,333$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.94 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Hailey Cowan | 18c | 9,104$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.72 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…3c4cbacked Nina Miloševic | 80c | 6,240$4,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Nina Miloševic | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nina Miloševic | 76c | 4,433$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.92 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Nina Miloševic | 76c | 4,243$3,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.87 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 3,505$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.04 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nina Miloševic | 80c | 2,844$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.49 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Hailey Cowan | 21c | 2,774$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.52 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 2,045$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.52 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Nina Miloševic | 80c | 2,024$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.85 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Hailey Cowan | 20c | 1,850$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.33 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Hailey Cowan | 20c | 1,110$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Nina Miloševic | 80c | 1,100$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Hailey Cowan | 19c | 1,080$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…2bafbacked Nina Miloševic | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Hailey Cowan | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 842.11$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nina Miloševic | 76c | 659.01$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.21 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Nina Miloševic | 74c | 641$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6c…8759backed Nina Miloševic | 79c | 639.25$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 525$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nina Miloševic | 78c | 512$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Hailey Cowan | 29c | 500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.39 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…3d49backed Nina Miloševic | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Hailey Cowan | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Nina Miloševic | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Nina Miloševic | 77c | 375$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Nina Miloševic | 79c | 370.58$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Hailey Cowan | 27c | 324.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Hailey Cowan | 18c | 275.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Hailey Cowan | 20c | 250.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…8e2abacked Hailey Cowan | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Nina Miloševic | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…7c09backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc860…c0b7backed Hailey Cowan | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Hailey Cowan | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked Hailey Cowan | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Hailey Cowan | 19c | 184.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9661…5326backed Nina Miloševic | 80c | 183.79$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nina Miloševic | 72c | 178.74$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…17c0backed Hailey Cowan | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6865…6033backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 165.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Hailey Cowan | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Hailey Cowan | 19c | 153.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Hailey Cowan | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Hailey Cowan | 26c | 124.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Hailey Cowan | 19c | 123.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…c7f9backed Nina Miloševic | 80c | 118.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked Hailey Cowan | 16c | 100.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8c11backed Hailey Cowan | 23c | 93.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1d82backed Hailey Cowan | 21c | 93.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7952…4644backed Nina Miloševic | 76c | 93.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Hailey Cowan | 20c | 91.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Hailey Cowan | 17c | 79.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Nina Miloševic | 76c | 71.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49ea…1c22backed Hailey Cowan | 23c | 64.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Nina Miloševic | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886e…b9bebacked Nina Miloševic | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Hailey Cowan | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…d67bbacked Hailey Cowan | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Nina Miloševic | 76c | 40.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked Nina Miloševic | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Nina Miloševic | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Nina Miloševic | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…2c88backed Nina Miloševic | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf324…cac4backed Nina Miloševic | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Nina Miloševic (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Nina Miloševic win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.