UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe1ba99e0b19bc733edcaa3303c79fc37d31f90fa89da59e67280f7700d9844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda34…01a8backed Yes | 51c | 4,417$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.85 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 54c | 1,115$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.92 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed No | 58c | 1,007$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.88 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 50c | 980$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.13 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 49c | 794$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.94 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 54c | 650$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.55 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked No | 53c | 626.67$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.47 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed No | 48c | 510.66$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.54 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 51c | 480$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 40c | 443.51$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.72 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed No | 49c | 271.59$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.51 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…8eefbacked No | 48c | 230$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 50c | 170$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed No | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 49c | 143.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 47c | 133.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed No | 53c | 103$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Yes | 44c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 52c | 53.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed No | 50c | 50.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…9946backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…dc95backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed No | 57c | 29.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…026dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Nina Miloševic (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)Nina Miloševic won
- Will Nina Miloševic win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.