TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nurullo Alievof Mike Davis, Nurullo Aliev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$814,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$847,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Mike Davis33c501,682$165,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165,192.077454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Nurullo Aliev68c147,050$100,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,353.413452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Nurullo Aliev67c100,000$67,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,00016244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Nurullo Aliev69c87,631$60,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,405.423650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Nurullo Aliev67c80,000$53,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,4002065%13 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Nurullo Aliev67c44,956$30,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,835.393046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…0386backed Nurullo Aliev66c17,742$11,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,040.057160.6%43 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Nurullo Aliev68c12,222$8,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,953.063452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Nurullo Aliev69c10,053$6,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,143.161070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab3e…de25backed Mike Davis33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Mike Davis32c8,293$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.2610035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Nurullo Aliev70c8,110$5,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,452.335050%25 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Nurullo Aliev67c8,000$5,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.968360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Mike Davis34c7,472$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.9537854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mike Davis32c6,084$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.4617150.9%87 W · 84 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Nurullo Aliev69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5503762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Mike Davis16c4,118$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.9615736.9%58 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Mike Davis31c4,047$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.6316846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mike Davis23c3,588$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.863625%9 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Mike Davis16c3,071$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.1710746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Nurullo Aliev69c2,647$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.592450%12 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nurullo Aliev68c2,332$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.2330039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Mike Davis30c2,309$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.364748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Nurullo Aliev69c2,194$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Mike Davis28c2,173$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.4916256.8%92 W · 70 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Nurullo Aliev67c2,157$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.921560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mike Davis21c2,132$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.4433132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Mike Davis34c2,096$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.529133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nurullo Aliev67c2,042$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.9815444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nurullo Aliev68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x692f…d325backed Mike Davis32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Mike Davis31c1,829$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.659649%47 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea60…cc6bbacked Nurullo Aliev67c1,727$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.052343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Nurullo Aliev68c1,726$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.468851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Mike Davis34c1,722$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.45152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Mike Davis17c1,685$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2718032.8%59 W · 121 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed Nurullo Aliev69c1,675$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.343458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Mike Davis33c1,652$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.666963.8%44 W · 25 L+11.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Nurullo Aliev69c1,552$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.23154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Mike Davis32c1,547$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4954447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8089…f935backed Nurullo Aliev68c1,531$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.072927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Mike Davis34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5102548%12 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d8…a656backed Nurullo Aliev64c1,500$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.785569.1%38 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Nurullo Aliev68c1,471$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.59887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed Nurullo Aliev69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.282259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Mike Davis33c1,430$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.940%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe95…1a93backed Mike Davis36c1,428$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf87…ce4cbacked Nurullo Aliev77c1,365$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.281782.4%14 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1aa…b4bebacked Nurullo Aliev78c1,289$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.773577.1%27 W · 8 L+6.7wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+27.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfed2…4671backed Mike Davis33c1,241$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4105954.2%32 W · 27 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Mike Davis36c1,200$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4329247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbafd…2964backed Mike Davis32c1,200$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Nurullo Aliev69c1,176$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.881952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…9324backed Nurullo Aliev73c1,162$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.643458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Mike Davis12c1,089$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.654047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Nurullo Aliev66c1,077$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.577949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nurullo Aliev67c1,055$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.041060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Nurullo Aliev68c1,029$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.412680.8%21 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Mike Davis29c1,004$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8414233.1%47 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Mike Davis32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3208558.8%50 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98b1…9df8backed Nurullo Aliev74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Mike Davis32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3205459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Mike Davis32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3208461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Mike Davis32c999.8$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.9413244.7%59 W · 73 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Mike Davis30c966.48$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6136745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd05…0c26backed Mike Davis32c937.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-71.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Nurullo Aliev67c882.86$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.347263.9%46 W · 26 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Nurullo Aliev68c875.87$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.2815549%76 W · 79 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Nurullo Aliev68c871.3$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.82650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Mike Davis24c855.88$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1322438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4c…9671backed Nurullo Aliev75c805.08$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.081070%7 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe650…0944backed Mike Davis36c800$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.067650%38 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Mike Davis32c782$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.245360.4%32 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec5a…2e90backed Nurullo Aliev65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.232650%13 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Nurullo Aliev68c735.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2914560%87 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Nurullo Aliev70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2916158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Mike Davis21c665.5$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8922847.8%109 W · 119 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x538e…77f5backed Nurullo Aliev75c658.29$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.719364.5%60 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…8008backed Mike Davis33c654$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.831421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Nurullo Aliev65c649.4$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.64669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d7…61cfbacked Mike Davis38c641.33$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Nurullo Aliev69c637.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.788434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82be…4e52backed Mike Davis32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked Nurullo Aliev68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1925950.8%30 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked Nurullo Aliev76c600$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Mike Davis16c600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9627448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Nurullo Aliev69c567.16$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.617068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88f2…a6c1backed Mike Davis33c551.78$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.193956.4%22 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7c2…63d8backed Nurullo Aliev69c546.6$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Nurullo Aliev75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0310…4745backed Mike Davis36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99b1…196abacked Mike Davis33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.98961.8%55 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Nurullo Aliev67c499.96$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9925251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Nurullo Aliev60c493$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.27843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd966…8136backed Mike Davis29c492.35$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.392025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Mike Davis31c490.54$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0714551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c75…227fbacked Nurullo Aliev67c474.8$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.83348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1a…e239backed Nurullo Aliev71c468.26$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07c2…b18dbacked Nurullo Aliev70c455.51$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.51540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Mike Davis33c453.67$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.712962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.