UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd139f99130b597b8341c18dbf1412941b43fae2aacdb3ba13005cb4b7d17ac68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 66c | 48,841$32,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,605.87 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b9…79a2backed Under | 34c | 13,973$4,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,750.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…f601backed Under | 34c | 13,140$4,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,467.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…6930backed Under | 34c | 12,560$4,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,270.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…de25backed Under | 34c | 7,850$2,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 37c | 5,135$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 63c | 3,071$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.27 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 63c | 2,100$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.1 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 34c | 1,098$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.48 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Under | 36c | 297.3$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 65c | 152.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Over | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 63c | 97.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Under | 34c | 78.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…6eb7backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Under | 34c | 72.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…068ebacked Under | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 33c | 48.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…1b63backed Under | 38c | 31.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)Nurullo Aliev won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.