TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7c75…227f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
106
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: MLB, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 56 out of 100; worst Lol at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLBlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT6656.1%37 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$786Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$786.44
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Soxbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$970.09
New York Mets vs. Chicago White Soxbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$160.43
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$886Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$668.39
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Soxbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$719.84
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. New York Metsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$372.34
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$177.21
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$194
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$459.27
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$377.19
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+91.3%+$263.86
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigersbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$207.83
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankeesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.86
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$196
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)backed Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$147.27
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$489.66
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)backed Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$175.52
Baltimore Orioles winning after 5 innings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.3
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$154
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astrosbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+159.2%+$354.92
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT3348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Serghei Spivac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Main Card)backed MarQuel Mederos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+300%+$240
Will Kennedy Nzechukwu win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
UFC Fight Night: Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Chris Padilla · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+68.9%+$80.52
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Jackson McVey (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Jackson McVey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$147.78
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+81.9%+$89.27
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.77
UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Kauê Fernandes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Will Mansur Abdul-Malik win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
UFC 330: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Mansur Abdul-Malik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$371
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.17
UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Joel Álvarez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$372.1
UFC 330: Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin (Catchweight, Prelims)backed Charles Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+156.5%+$768.84
UFC 330: Eric McConico vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Eric McConico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$241
UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Tresean Gore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$373.75
UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)backed Rafael Tobias · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
UFC 330: Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Ramiz Brahimaj · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.75
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Diyar Nurgozhay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$298.23
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Manoel Sousa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$396Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$365.54
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+114.1%+$344.84
UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jan Blachowicz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Marcin Tybura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.25
UFC Fight Night: Duško Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Robert Valentin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$256.25
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$353.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lollast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.