TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Jackson McVey (Middleweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jackson McVeyof Wes Schultz, Jackson McVey
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$390,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$403,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Jackson McVey63c280,840$176,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,526.117454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Wes Schultz37c66,510$24,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,745.774634.8%16 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Wes Schultz37c51,467$19,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,042.7910035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Wes Schultz38c40,000$15,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,199.974744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Wes Schultz37c22,222$8,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,222.143452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed Wes Schultz36c21,003$7,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,596.83520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Wes Schultz37c17,761$6,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,571.411844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed Wes Schultz37c15,800$5,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8461241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Wes Schultz38c15,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,70010542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wes Schultz37c15,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,55037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Jackson McVey58c10,318$5,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,381.4315238.2%58 W · 94 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Jackson McVey63c7,890$4,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.4953956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wes Schultz37c6,488$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.5614551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Jackson McVey66c5,755$3,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.655149%25 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x620b…2e9fbacked Wes Schultz36c5,494$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Jackson McVey67c4,898$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.032564%16 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+48.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Jackson McVey63c4,888$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.5628849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Jackson McVey64c4,336$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.731662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Wes Schultz37c4,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4808220.7%17 W · 65 L-12.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Wes Schultz31c3,443$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.848434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Wes Schultz37c3,134$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Wes Schultz37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.9911746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Wes Schultz46c2,882$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Wes Schultz37c2,499$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.1314551%74 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Jackson McVey65c2,444$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.3735648.6%173 W · 183 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Wes Schultz38c2,367$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.31758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+31%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2ba…1883backed Wes Schultz32c2,291$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.891020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Jackson McVey59c2,087$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.545273.1%38 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+40.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1602…fbb0backed Wes Schultz25c2,025$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ad…1b86backed Wes Schultz36c1,964$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.055330.2%16 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fd2…afcebacked Wes Schultz46c1,905$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.41546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Wes Schultz37c1,892$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.044153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x151e…cedebacked Jackson McVey75c1,823$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.81770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.5wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+71%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wes Schultz37c1,811$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.7317050.6%86 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Wes Schultz37c1,805$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.7229133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Wes Schultz45c1,766$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.975560%33 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17b8…d5d1backed Wes Schultz42c1,699$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.9112448.4%60 W · 64 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Jackson McVey63c1,684$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.0810546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9766…a41dbacked Wes Schultz37c1,649$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.28520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3155…268ebacked Wes Schultz37c1,618$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.516759.7%40 W · 27 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Jackson McVey62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.96056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Jackson McVey58c1,422$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.766963.8%44 W · 25 L+11.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb306…2086backed Wes Schultz44c1,157$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Wes Schultz38c1,140$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.5918644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d8…a656backed Jackson McVey62c1,097$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.775569.1%38 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x819d…6e9cbacked Jackson McVey63c1,056$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.562138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8aa…7b9bbacked Jackson McVey64c1,053$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.13850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Wes Schultz38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3807949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Wes Schultz39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39025251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x270b…2bafbacked Jackson McVey63c999.98$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.992161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Jackson McVey54c953$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.3818032.8%59 W · 121 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Wes Schultz38c900$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3421250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Jackson McVey55c875.07$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.1913951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Wes Schultz39c874.75$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.3833132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Jackson McVey62c869$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.229100%9 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xaf51…8bfabacked Wes Schultz44c848.03$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.336147.5%29 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Jackson McVey62c707$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.6817752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Jackson McVey62c699.99$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26612845.3%58 W · 70 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb73…1e52backed Jackson McVey64c625$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2259452.1%49 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Wes Schultz37c619.19$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.12157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Wes Schultz37c619.19$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.11540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Jackson McVey59c616.27$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.2411140.5%45 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Wes Schultz37c615$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.551127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Jackson McVey56c612.93$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.7627448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Jackson McVey59c600$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24637754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Jackson McVey59c597$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.4512449.2%61 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8be3…383cbacked Jackson McVey76c592.06$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd296…084dbacked Wes Schultz38c515.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.082850%14 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe650…0944backed Jackson McVey62c510$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.77650%38 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03dc…99e1backed Wes Schultz44c508.19$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.259060%54 W · 36 L+11.5wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+28.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Jackson McVey64c500$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.5117841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f4…936bbacked Jackson McVey64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802864.3%18 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Wes Schultz38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19035564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Jackson McVey55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.9926352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Jackson McVey63c498.13$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.261428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-53.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Wes Schultz37c479.97$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.816368.3%43 W · 20 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed Wes Schultz37c471$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.271010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-85.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Wes Schultz37c411.73$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.343151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34c8…9978backed Wes Schultz37c410.8$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Wes Schultz36c406.25$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Wes Schultz37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14811749.6%58 W · 59 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Wes Schultz38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c62…ca89backed Wes Schultz38c399.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c75…227fbacked Jackson McVey63c397.78$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.783348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe360…71fabacked Jackson McVey64c397.36$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eee…9b2bbacked Jackson McVey63c320$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.43030%9 W · 21 L-6.1wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb23e…829abacked Jackson McVey63c305.65$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.091560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Wes Schultz38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11411937.8%45 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Jackson McVey62c285.34$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.969548.4%46 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Wes Schultz37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4eb…999abacked Jackson McVey61c270.26$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+53.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Wes Schultz39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013647.1%64 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Wes Schultz37c255.27$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.457842.3%33 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Jackson McVey64c254$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2338153.5%204 W · 177 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Wes Schultz38c253.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.968158%47 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd738…eeeebacked Wes Schultz40c243.78$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7813248.5%64 W · 68 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed Jackson McVey63c240$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+45.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd4…4c88backed Wes Schultz47c211.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e6…abb3backed Jackson McVey64c200.17$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88f2…a6c1backed Jackson McVey61c177.35$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.753956.4%22 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.