MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf425e22434850c3e644735f3eb0a3ba14fd8f9861c3875623fea505680defdae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 46c | 2,472$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.68 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 930.98$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.35 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 44c | 335.43$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.84 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 46c | 318$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.77 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 56c | 312.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 249.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 182 | 52.2%95 W · 87 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 54c | 175$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 46c | 157.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 54c | 154.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 55c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 54c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.