MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a9e8676250fd9d77756e671262456476ad1f440637e68800ba36f7fb5b5fe81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 1,608$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.8 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 972.21$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.24 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 16c | 288.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 260.38$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.14 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 217.46$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 490 | 46.1%226 W · 264 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 191.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 162.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 148.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 141.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 601 | 34.4%207 W · 394 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 78c | 109.42$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 101$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 100.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed San Francisco Giants | 77c | 75.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 218 | 59.2%129 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 72.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 925 | 56.3%521 W · 404 L | +30.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Boston Red Sox | 25c | 68.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 66.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,494 | 63.4%947 W · 547 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 44.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 43.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 858 | 54.4%467 W · 391 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 810 | 55.1%446 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 19.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 19.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,191 | 40%876 W · 1,315 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.