MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489d2b0eee11452608a52a9b66fba4040359a0d89a48d03650eef9854f6e2acb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 14,933$5,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,408.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 8,772$5,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,234.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 68c | 7,458$5,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,070.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 3,978$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0807backed Over | 42c | 2,685$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…4c5fbacked Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 58c | 1,310$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 984.96$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 68c | 887.96$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.9 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 39c | 762.54$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.15 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 58c | 742$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.13 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 29c | 442.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 39c | 399.53$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.46 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 392$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.94 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 279.16$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 252.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 43c | 199.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Over | 56c | 179.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 28c | 162$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 64c | 155.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 52c | 141.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 58c | 132.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 26c | 105.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 60c | 95.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 30c | 85.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 57c | 84.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 58c | 79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 41c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 34c | 48.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 50c | 46.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 43.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Under | 36c | 32.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 50c | 30.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 66c | 29.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 61c | 24.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…b490backed Over | 66c | 19.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…47b6backed Over | 61c | 18.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 63c | 18.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.