UFC · resolved market
Will Mansur Abdul-Malik win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aeb72f5b7044629541f22655be997979e5029ad42fc1aaf53ce4f271b1f8908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Yes | 60c | 2,514$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Yes | 57c | 1,700$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 45c | 1,694$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.25 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 45c | 1,686$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.49 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed No | 40c | 1,505$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 43c | 1,431$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.11 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 56c | 1,260$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 43c | 790.38$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.52 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed No | 46c | 751.1$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 43c | 571.39$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.69 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Yes | 57c | 547.65$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Yes | 57c | 489.99$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.29 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…4b17backed Yes | 56c | 467.88$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed No | 45c | 467.55$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d8…e8ffbacked Yes | 56c | 416.29$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.97 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 51c | 400$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 43c | 395.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.26 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 47c | 328.7$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…a4ebbacked Yes | 55c | 273.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked Yes | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 47c | 204.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Yes | 55c | 190$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd422…7e43backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked Yes | 54c | 175.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 52c | 159.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 46c | 155.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…e235backed Yes | 55c | 115.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2645…ccc3backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed Yes | 55c | 91.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…291cbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…c234backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Yes | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Yes | 57c | 45.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed No | 44c | 41.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…d888backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed No | 42c | 32.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa816…9299backed Yes | 62c | 32.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 57c | 30.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadca…16b0backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…98eabacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mansur Abdul-Malik win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 330: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)Dustin Stoltzfus won
- Will Dustin Stoltzfus win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.