UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5685a4c028469cb5635b71cf697c759a7af25503a43fcce0174cf803fe61a9a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 41c | 1,468$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…3f10backed Yes | 60c | 1,342$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed No | 42c | 1,331$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.57 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 58c | 1,276$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.06 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 43c | 1,236$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Yes | 63c | 1,175$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 44c | 148.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…5cdcbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…1f65backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ef…f7c4backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Yes | 56c | 71.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 59c | 69.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…6c53backed Yes | 57c | 48.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Yes | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…bd3ebacked Yes | 58c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…574fbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed Yes | 59c | 32.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4446backed No | 47c | 27.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…1256backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 330: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)Dustin Stoltzfus won
- Will Dustin Stoltzfus win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mansur Abdul-Malik win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.