UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c3422009b10f62452b4435d0d40d66c814da41c4e132a5c1750146324abaf2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed No | 73c | 13,215$9,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,523.77 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 26c | 5,720$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.08 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 25c | 4,433$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.28 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Yes | 30c | 2,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 70c | 2,054$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.68 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 30c | 1,493$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.76 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 74c | 1,087$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.06 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Yes | 24c | 616.31$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.98 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 30c | 428.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 30c | 321.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked No | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Yes | 25c | 290.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked No | 70c | 201$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…107abacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed No | 73c | 137.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 31c | 60.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4f…7530backed No | 70c | 46.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…0fcbbacked Yes | 29c | 35.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc479…f56fbacked No | 66c | 29.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…026dbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…b82ebacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63e5…7b44backed No | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 330: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)Dustin Stoltzfus won
- Will Dustin Stoltzfus win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mansur Abdul-Malik win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.