UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f0b5306fe8b7b1e3c7327537801e6148fff316664b1efdc5dd61f469e3ec23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 54c | 8,362$4,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,846.29 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Under | 46c | 7,696$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.45 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Over | 58c | 4,133$2,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…2658backed Under | 45c | 3,551$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 2,188$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.66 | 171 | 50.9%87 W · 84 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Over | 52c | 1,717$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 1,583$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.5 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 1,315$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.46 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969e…b834backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 55c | 552.42$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.59 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…20d1backed Under | 43c | 517.28$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.38 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Over | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Under | 44c | 451.91$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 47c | 395.83$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Under | 49c | 373.47$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Over | 54c | 363.7$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 46c | 361$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 48c | 263.46$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Under | 44c | 256$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffa…f32ebacked Under | 43c | 233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Over | 57c | 233$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked Over | 52c | 215.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Over | 55c | 174.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 55c | 140.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 203 | 48.3%98 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed Under | 47c | 110.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 56c | 85.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 57c | 83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…cfffbacked Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 50.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…53d5backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…9c36backed Under | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…b178backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 55c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…2e2cbacked Over | 56c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 330: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)Dustin Stoltzfus won
- Will Dustin Stoltzfus win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mansur Abdul-Malik win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.