Wallet 0x5452…d448
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x54525ee78bd513b0bf75f94e560158f6fc35d448
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 30
- What they are worth now
- $144,712
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $162,871
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 30, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?backed No | 143,746shares | 50c | 99c | $142,668 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?backed Yes | 185,202shares | 49c | 1c | $1,389 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 TOUR Championship?backed No | 499.99shares | 96c | 97c | $483 |
| Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes | 135shares | 4c | 31c | $41 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?backed Yes | 6,513shares | 1c | 0c | $29 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?backed Yes | 500shares | 3c | 3c | $15 |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes | 135shares | 4c | 11c | $15 |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes | 135shares | 4c | 11c | $14 |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?backed Yes | 2,000shares | 1c | 1c | $14 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes | 135shares | 4c | 9c | $11 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship?backed Yes · resolved | 22,544shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · resolved | 22,000shares | 12c | $0 | Counted |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goalsbacked No · resolved | 21,525shares | 75c | $0 | Counted |
| Will LeBron James play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?backed Yes · resolved | 15,761shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Valero Texas Open?backed Yes · resolved | 12,493shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 2 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below. 3 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 753
- Categories scored
- 22
- Categories below 50
- 5
Best Category: F1, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).
Best Category F1 at 60 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 47.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fifa International — the 464 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| F1last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
F1 — the 56 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UFC — the 39 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Champions League — the 34 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA — the 33 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Premier League — the 25 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tennis — the 22 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NFL — the 19 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Europa Conference League — the 10 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NHL — the 9 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ligue 1 — the 7 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Olympics — the 7 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +475.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bundesliga — the 5 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Golf — the 4 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +879.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mls — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.