TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,002,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,503,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,002,497 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 749 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x042e…247fbacked Yes8c928,782$72,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,865.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes3c197,096$6,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,169.055032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc693…72dbbacked Yes1c165,920$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c158,718$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.75323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes9c121,434$11,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,522.5824652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c108,868$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.9328436.3%103 W · 181 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee1f…9cedbacked Yes1c108,841$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.95140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c98,759$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.83219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes1c95,811$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.9922434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes6c83,826$5,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,008.5518435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes2c83,566$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.9683147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c75,999$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.99734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8652…3ce4backed Yes1c73,953$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.7270%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes2c61,875$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.39205%1 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+170.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c60,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6301811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…ba65backed Yes5c57,167$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,591.93528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes1c56,975$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.0450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x737e…bee0backed Yes2c54,081$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…d4aabacked Yes11c53,432$5,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,976.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes1c52,270$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.98323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes3c52,263$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.643511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc935…fde4backed Yes8c50,836$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes1c49,546$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.99557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9220…e3bcbacked Yes1c47,000$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe31…fc7fbacked Yes1c47,000$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6683…80e3backed Yes1c47,000$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…b67fbacked Yes1c47,000$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0483…483bbacked Yes1c47,000$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+43.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00b7…2138backed Yes1c47,000$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb060…e778backed Yes1c47,000$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes6c40,823$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,326.5614837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…43dcbacked Yes1c40,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Yes6c40,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,24016860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Yes9c40,000$3,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,74023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16d4…6e9bbacked Yes1c39,600$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.881520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Yes7c39,104$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,617.649442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c39,000$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf98…0554backed Yes7c38,748$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.263020%6 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb8…3acbbacked Yes1c38,609$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.7170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c38,405$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.042213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-56.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes11c37,450$4,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,124.0947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d5…6240backed Yes1c36,540$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.94180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Yes13c35,762$4,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,568.46639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb29f…b308backed Yes1c35,741$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.99140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c35,462$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.75185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+208.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes2c35,226$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.681769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Yes3c33,704$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.612516%4 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc76d…2c25backed Yes1c33,447$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.72150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes6c32,064$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.458428.6%24 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bcd…5354backed Yes1c31,167$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8c…d699backed Yes1c31,151$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes5c30,610$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.895724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Yes1c30,108$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.988343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb194…40e1backed Yes1c30,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c30,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c29,918$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.43283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff47…d81fbacked Yes1c29,098$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes1c28,571$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-79.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a66…a371backed Yes6c28,004$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9811…5de5backed Yes2c27,669$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.67166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+346.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c26,300$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes2c25,087$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.2616226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c24,615$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680.8923024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe6…2770backed Yes1c24,053$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.76195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes7c21,596$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.58812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f0…7b1fbacked Yes2c21,507$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.221540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes3c21,296$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.920542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Yes1c21,174$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.365523.6%13 W · 42 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-35.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes1c20,644$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.4418140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e65…6c95backed Yes1c20,523$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.3110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8182…3732backed Yes1c20,522$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.17180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2f…d7fbbacked Yes1c20,134$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.46160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9809…108fbacked Yes1c20,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7489…7f27backed Yes1c19,670$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes10c19,599$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.384531.1%14 W · 31 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d5e…ca99backed Yes4c19,183$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.131915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-69.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes3c18,495$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.678818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbea…51bbbacked Yes1c18,173$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.38100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes1c18,020$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x390d…350bbacked Yes2c17,056$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.35147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes1c17,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9024…a444backed Yes1c16,001$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.791323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick8cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes8c15,241$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.884843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3657…2665backed Yes7c15,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c15,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf041…034abacked Yes1c15,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b8…ba77backed Yes1c15,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes5c13,333$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.8421227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x741b…0468backed Yes1c13,206$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.472313%3 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+156.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes7c13,100$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.83370%0 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c13,048$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.36674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes11c13,000$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.7422142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes6c12,993$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.578622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes8c12,969$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.756124.6%15 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe8…fc24backed Yes7c12,700$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.4128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc85…0642backed Yes1c12,685$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be8…2bc0backed Yes1c12,668$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Yes7c12,017$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.462133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c11,963$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.7636826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fbf…f580backed Yes1c11,824$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.09293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+229.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.