TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,048,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,606,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,048,003 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,074 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd4f5…e5e7backed Yes0c4,228,778$14,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,226.94110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c2,768,007$16,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,024160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c2,171,648$12,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,048.77283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c1,711,165$8,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,006.31319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d48…2852backed Yes1c1,210,090$6,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,050.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes1c1,103,187$6,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,119.12130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes1c1,000,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0002010%2 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-82.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb60a…bce6backed Yes1c456,303$3,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,194.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb30…3d8bbacked Yes1c417,137$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c333,732$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.731769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes1c215,845$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.85323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c213,470$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.62323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa967…a002backed Yes1c199,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce59…bbddbacked Yes1c191,857$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c176,915$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.58160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c174,536$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.37219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde2d…bb25backed Yes1c155,429$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c146,475$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.8329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes0c109,999$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5503815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b36…fd74backed Yes1c103,048$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.762231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c100,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes1c99,978$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.662626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+194.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes1c93,919$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.79147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-85.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes1c80,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c80,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9bc…45c3backed Yes1c74,400$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid+257.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c69,165$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.12454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe4…bafcbacked Yes1c68,653$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248c…caebbacked Yes1c62,629$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c55,000$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c53,000$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…82d7backed Yes1c51,100$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef47…e705backed Yes1c50,633$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6376…bfe4backed Yes1c45,500$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30bc…6ce5backed Yes1c45,500$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c8e…cd4bbacked Yes1c45,500$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc757…82e0backed Yes1c45,500$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d10…5f9bbacked Yes1c45,467$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f36…96a3backed Yes1c45,467$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbf…9da7backed Yes1c45,450$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7d…31d9backed Yes1c45,417$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…3dbbbacked Yes1c45,417$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35b8…1b94backed Yes1c45,400$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac33…6425backed Yes1c45,383$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x716b…04f1backed Yes1c45,333$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ee…03ecbacked Yes1c45,333$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ebd…3689backed Yes1c45,333$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505c…605ebacked Yes1c45,333$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea9…842cbacked Yes1c45,333$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44da…811bbacked Yes1c45,333$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x556c…9514backed Yes1c45,267$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3724…dab2backed Yes1c45,233$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…5888backed Yes1c45,217$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a2…7538backed Yes1c45,217$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6672…7c99backed Yes1c45,200$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f67…3c36backed Yes1c45,200$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ddd…f4f9backed Yes1c45,183$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3780…4b7abacked Yes1c45,167$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa100…dc54backed Yes1c45,167$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa43e…2ce4backed Yes1c45,167$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3521…07ecbacked Yes1c45,167$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb54a…ac6cbacked Yes1c45,150$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4213…ad4abacked Yes1c45,150$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0321…ba30backed Yes1c45,133$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x007f…4736backed Yes1c45,133$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6649…76abbacked Yes1c45,117$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaedc…ec2fbacked Yes1c45,100$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b5…4483backed Yes1c45,083$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca5e…60f4backed Yes1c45,083$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d1d…c1c9backed Yes1c45,083$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752f…9332backed Yes1c45,061$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.49922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4b…d025backed Yes1c45,050$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef32…7bc3backed Yes1c45,017$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d9…8ad3backed Yes1c45,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f1…366cbacked Yes1c45,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ac…88ddbacked Yes1c45,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba7…c46abacked Yes1c44,967$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x193d…f0e8backed Yes1c44,950$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc280…dad1backed Yes1c44,948$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f52…9688backed Yes1c44,883$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac10…80f5backed Yes1c44,850$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c33…3a8cbacked Yes1c44,833$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90e3…958ebacked Yes1c44,833$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc0…12acbacked Yes1c44,833$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ef…c8dfbacked Yes1c44,750$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f6…3fd2backed Yes1c44,733$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35db…fd5cbacked Yes1c44,667$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86aa…f7bbbacked Yes1c44,667$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd37…b3a7backed Yes2c44,495$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1de3…dadabacked Yes2c44,495$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes2c42,359$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.3970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ee…6e73backed Yes1c42,167$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c42,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f19…689fbacked Yes1c41,545$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f2…39f2backed Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1cd…1ae5backed Yes1c36,215$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a4…e17bbacked Yes2c35,784$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.