TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,351,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,109,607

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,351,131 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 288 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c711,769$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.54329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Yes1c643,585$4,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,021.512128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes0c558,799$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.78323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c367,654$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.421769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0e…188cbacked Yes1c344,044$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes1c329,826$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.3116036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes0c306,500$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.511142.3%47 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ed…92bebacked Yes1c249,881$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.41120%0 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c229,399$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.78323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes0c199,999$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c09…4a10backed Yes1c199,763$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c160,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c156,399$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.5303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes0c150,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c145,800$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.17323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40b…23a3backed Yes1c143,907$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes0c130,333$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.563815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c123,485$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.3416226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09f8…e156backed Yes1c123,456$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.742737%10 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+123.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c122,827$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.84319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81d6…bec9backed Yes1c121,680$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff47…d81fbacked Yes1c114,263$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c98,570$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.6328436.3%103 W · 181 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9bc…45c3backed Yes1c95,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid+257.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89e2…bb8dbacked Yes1c86,912$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.32911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+640.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f5…e5e7backed Yes0c75,311$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.55110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x741b…0468backed Yes1c74,928$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.422313%3 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+156.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x006f…b3efbacked Yes1c70,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes0c69,325$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes1c67,913$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.9883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes0c60,230$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ee…9ababacked Yes0c60,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f2…39f2backed Yes0c60,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yes0c52,384$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.775851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b36…fd74backed Yes1c50,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d5…6240backed Yes1c50,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ceb…0f9ebacked Yes1c50,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c49,999$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c48,000$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c43,537$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.15110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d2…6bfcbacked Yes1c43,405$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8182…3732backed Yes1c43,392$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.53180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c41,348$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.831811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd43…df4cbacked Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228c…d770backed Yes1c40,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed83…a91fbacked Yes1c39,000$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2341127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes1c38,571$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-79.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee1f…9cedbacked Yes1c37,027$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.78140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc76d…2c25backed Yes1c36,931$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.45150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e65…6c95backed Yes1c36,175$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.23110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Yes0c35,779$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.122744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c33,434$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.088818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ea…db89backed Yes1c31,664$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb194…40e1backed Yes1c30,106$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.31170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb8…3acbbacked Yes1c30,023$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.16170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd936…9af9backed Yes1c30,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6b…3681backed Yes1c30,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes1c30,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes2c27,948$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.652634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c27,858$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.58185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+208.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8652…3ce4backed Yes1c27,148$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes1c27,025$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.25724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c25,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a5…6112backed Yes1c24,409$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.05150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1949…515ebacked Yes3c22,222$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf81f…4372backed Yes0c20,739$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e79…6a45backed Yes1c20,653$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d2…034bbacked Yes1c20,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8c…d699backed Yes1c20,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbea…51bbbacked Yes1c20,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb29f…b308backed Yes1c20,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6254…08b6backed Yes1c20,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes1c17,263$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.835032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3c…0915backed Yes1c16,024$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf041…034abacked Yes1c15,702$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.32140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes2c15,261$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2118140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b8…ba77backed Yes1c15,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c14,800$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes1c12,928$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.28283.6%1 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…43dcbacked Yes1c12,290$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.25140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes1c11,218$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.455628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes3c10,312$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.2113217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7471…a6dabacked Yes1c10,127$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.02150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71b3…a5d6backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6084…b21bbacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7749…5c5bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31f…e63dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2f…d7fbbacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes3c10,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010937.6%41 W · 68 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9809…108fbacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes3c8,917$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2120542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes2c8,324$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.0922838.6%88 W · 140 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes1c8,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbf…f580backed Yes1c7,987$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+229.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes3c7,969$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.231921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd503…1851backed Yes1c7,875$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes1c7,778$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018336.1%66 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…35dcbacked Yes1c7,692$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.