TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,236,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,201,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,236,454 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,647 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c5,187,058$28,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,017.11319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c1,830,689$10,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,260.23160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c0…55ffbacked Yes1c1,315,120$7,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,654.47119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Yes0c1,203,450$3,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,829.26219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes0c971,837$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,640.315032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf98…0554backed Yes1c732,225$4,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.163020%6 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c624,429$3,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,490.72329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x441d…4d70backed Yes0c606,462$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c500,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002010%2 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-82.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Yes1c475,938$3,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,212.448128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Yes0c408,695$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.082540%10 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c385,937$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.11769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Yes0c333,327$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9820851%106 W · 102 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes1c333,300$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.12626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes1c311,242$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.457948.1%38 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d3b…b511backed Yes0c301,333$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7291216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Yes0c289,000$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.746651.5%34 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c285,999$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c281,763$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.9518435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c263,165$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.3721227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c257,603$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.68454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2012…128fbacked Yes0c255,810$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes1c255,734$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.3820542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c233,297$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.42323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc4…95a3backed Yes0c224,132$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.262512%3 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+98%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb358…e547backed Yes0c222,199$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes1c215,750$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.02147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-85.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d6…bec9backed Yes1c209,000$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4631127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63ed…92bebacked Yes1c201,000$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407120%0 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Yes1c200,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x741b…0468backed Yes0c193,313$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.942313%3 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+156.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c193,295$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.328436.3%103 W · 181 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x042e…247fbacked Yes1c190,813$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a06…fb08backed Yes1c167,415$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.292321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9809…108fbacked Yes1c146,172$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.76150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca9…558dbacked Yes1c142,222$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.1340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c138,000$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8681811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes1c137,363$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.182240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ee…9ababacked Yes0c135,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a5…6112backed Yes1c125,881$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c125,000$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77516226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c121,194$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.89283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb8…3acbbacked Yes1c114,582$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.41170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffd…ddd3backed Yes1c113,366$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c109,573$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.72303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d5…6240backed Yes1c109,329$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.01180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes1c108,760$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.627939.2%31 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…be74backed Yes1c107,761$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7874…2767backed Yes1c107,561$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0535…d862backed Yes1c100,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes1c100,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…28b9backed Yes1c100,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c98,000$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d5d…4e3fbacked Yes1c97,572$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes1c96,821$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bb…50dcbacked Yes1c93,396$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ea…8532backed Yes1c92,690$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb29f…b308backed Yes1c88,425$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.11140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8182…3732backed Yes1c88,049$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.29180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8c…d699backed Yes1c81,539$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.94150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…43dcbacked Yes1c80,399$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.21140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Yes1c79,659$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.616965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Yes1c77,000$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5392245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes1c75,000$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x315f…5593backed Yes1c74,668$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes1c73,952$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes1c73,918$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.4328433.1%94 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d8…7750backed Yes1c71,930$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.5340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5426…1339backed Yes0c71,727$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.372714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-33.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa14f…d518backed Yes1c71,500$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda4d…58ebbacked Yes1c71,369$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd936…9af9backed Yes1c70,992$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.02160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3972…5f85backed Yes1c70,735$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes1c70,501$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.89170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x413f…8ce2backed Yes1c69,692$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6b…3681backed Yes1c67,303$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.87140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda09…4852backed Yes1c66,792$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes1c66,667$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa484…b74cbacked Yes1c66,129$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4487…1ec1backed Yes1c64,412$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.682218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a7…4f55backed Yes1c63,786$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f76…6e84backed Yes1c63,657$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb4…e07ebacked Yes1c63,400$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cda…351abacked Yes1c63,100$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…82d7backed Yes1c62,943$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafeb…8e99backed Yes1c62,857$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…8253backed Yes1c62,852$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.221637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+89.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5424…1bdabacked Yes1c62,143$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992f…c40abacked Yes1c60,952$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes1c60,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4138…2a24backed Yes1c60,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b8…ba77backed Yes0c60,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes1c60,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228c…d770backed Yes1c56,972$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f5…e5e7backed Yes0c56,354$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.71110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes1c55,000$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3253815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbeeb…e6b0backed Yes1c54,587$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.0940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…27f1backed Yes1c53,851$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e65…6c95backed Yes0c53,033$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd016…06adbacked Yes1c51,899$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.