TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,242,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,732,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,242,114 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,403 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd4f5…e5e7backed Yes0c4,321,647$12,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,913.99110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c3,131,498$17,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,052.06160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c2,647,867$13,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,866.18319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c2,395,523$17,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,854.33283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes1c1,409,314$7,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,955.88130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes1c1,000,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0002010%2 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-82.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes0c794,032$3,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,468.360%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c596,405$4,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,350.63329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf541…74f7backed Yes1c523,105$3,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,138.6350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c395,658$2,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,863.48323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c244,018$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725.15454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c231,000$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c180,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Yes1c170,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2602245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f2…39f2backed Yes0c140,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c129,561$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.86100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd64b…d37cbacked Yes0c125,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes1c122,286$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.42147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-85.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed8…c981backed Yes1c113,800$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes1c113,497$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.56323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57bc…4cd3backed Yes1c106,137$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe818…bcf3backed Yes1c102,000$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed83…a91fbacked Yes1c100,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05da…ae41backed Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c84,492$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.121769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes1c80,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a15…8019backed Yes1c75,933$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c73,000$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b7…fbd0backed Yes1c71,240$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c69,000$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes0c65,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5611…b0d6backed Yes1c62,543$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5424…1bdabacked Yes1c62,300$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b71…040ebacked Yes1c60,070$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c60,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ee…9ababacked Yes0c60,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Yes1c60,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42015746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f76…6e84backed Yes1c54,133$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d5…77cebacked Yes1c53,571$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e6e…d2c2backed Yes1c53,536$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.7530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c53,282$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.13110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a7…4f55backed Yes1c53,083$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafeb…8e99backed Yes1c52,067$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb4…e07ebacked Yes1c51,650$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df0…aee5backed Yes1c51,286$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cda…351abacked Yes1c51,083$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd2d…f832backed Yes1c51,000$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f38…ef2abacked Yes1c50,857$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid-40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8f1…7afbbacked Yes1c47,377$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c2…ca27backed Yes1c44,667$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8c…399abacked Yes1c44,283$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14f…d518backed Yes1c43,900$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes1c43,285$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.2816036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaab…a8bdbacked Yes1c43,167$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf9…7085backed Yes1c43,044$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0275…ade0backed Yes1c42,983$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8176…cfdbbacked Yes1c42,852$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08d6…a339backed Yes1c42,783$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef22…0a12backed Yes1c42,667$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f9…a4a6backed Yes1c42,500$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…5682backed Yes1c42,389$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e4…a5f3backed Yes1c42,355$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e96…a5e0backed Yes1c42,338$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d7b…7f0abacked Yes1c41,938$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b6…f0ecbacked Yes1c41,490$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a1…f892backed Yes1c41,425$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a79…7558backed Yes1c41,336$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9d…a2e2backed Yes1c41,257$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…dc09backed Yes1c41,000$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcda…6fb4backed Yes1c40,590$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf3…45a3backed Yes0c40,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5d…d912backed Yes1c40,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4138…2a24backed Yes1c40,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20b…a285backed Yes1c39,000$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8138…c27fbacked Yes1c38,344$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.41728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652e…5234backed Yes1c38,222$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cc…819bbacked Yes1c38,088$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29c…7270backed Yes1c36,655$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.17520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeaa…6d2ebacked Yes1c36,198$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcf…f1c7backed Yes1c36,031$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes1c35,049$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c35,000$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x546f…4e1bbacked Yes1c34,883$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe381…8e24backed Yes1c34,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd10…8cd0backed Yes1c33,426$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes1c33,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160a…c495backed Yes1c32,028$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba4f…d14ebacked Yes1c31,308$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb8d…934fbacked Yes1c30,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes1c30,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-79.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe88…c04fbacked Yes1c30,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe959…7c7abacked Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…4841backed Yes1c28,571$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27a…6afcbacked Yes1c28,045$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba24…059fbacked Yes1c27,789$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dc5…90f7backed Yes1c27,749$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e8…5260backed Yes1c27,728$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.552733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-46.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f7c…e946backed Yes1c27,560$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.