TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,375,599
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,614,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,375,599 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,598 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c19,644,104$99,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,390.31319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c895,636$10,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,449.72283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e2a…07bfbacked Yes1c714,286$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c593,396$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.58329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c529,557$2,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,647.79160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes1c500,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c433,563$4,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,197454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48f2…1240backed Yes1c392,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes0c259,718$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.59219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes0c239,999$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca4…fde7backed Yes1c200,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa967…a002backed Yes1c200,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf865…436bbacked Yes1c163,322$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd43…df4cbacked Yes0c160,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes1c130,885$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.29147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-85.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c119,606$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.03303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c114,499$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.82323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes1c110,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ae…5f26backed Yes1c100,282$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06a…c5ebbacked Yes1c100,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd4…5830backed Yes1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeaa…6d2ebacked Yes1c100,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc4…1b1abacked Yes1c99,100$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa463…b8f0backed Yes1c92,740$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c90,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c88,500$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.5323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba84…16e6backed Yes1c86,810$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x709f…635abacked Yes1c83,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09f8…e156backed Yes1c76,555$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.892737%10 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+123.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd30d…cbb5backed Yes1c75,792$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe6…2770backed Yes1c75,000$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4900…6d15backed Yes1c71,445$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c65,411$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ab…2b54backed Yes1c64,930$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b4…ec9cbacked Yes1c60,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8892…fc50backed Yes1c56,600$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a7…4f55backed Yes1c55,675$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafeb…8e99backed Yes1c55,563$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes1c55,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fb4…e07ebacked Yes1c54,963$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b6e…e6a4backed Yes1c54,867$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3412…9c13backed Yes1c54,833$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57bc…4cd3backed Yes1c50,283$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca58…5f63backed Yes1c50,200$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x171b…9805backed Yes1c48,102$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fef…e966backed Yes1c46,550$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa778…39eabacked Yes1c45,275$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c45,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a5…7405backed Yes1c42,738$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes1c41,815$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.072626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+194.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca3…6cefbacked Yes1c41,500$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c57…bea5backed Yes1c41,500$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a4…11e5backed Yes1c40,667$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cce…8713backed Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643e…f611backed Yes1c39,606$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5254…496fbacked Yes1c37,600$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf7d…d004backed Yes1c37,345$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x717d…fecbbacked Yes1c37,206$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90e4…543cbacked Yes1c36,747$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff23…24c7backed Yes1c36,503$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c4…de59backed Yes1c36,395$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17f…5741backed Yes1c35,957$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc29e…59a7backed Yes1c35,779$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff7…95e5backed Yes1c35,714$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed08…3c70backed Yes1c35,347$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa74…e4c3backed Yes1c35,324$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc676…ab55backed Yes1c34,616$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c34,030$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.24442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9220…c407backed Yes1c34,030$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4330…5712backed Yes1c33,273$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d8e…4f3bbacked Yes1c32,432$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e6…03ccbacked Yes1c31,264$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.38520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cbd…4ef3backed Yes1c31,199$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba54…6c72backed Yes1c30,856$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ebc…f27ebacked Yes1c30,448$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe9…023ebacked Yes1c30,192$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ae…3797backed Yes1c30,071$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes1c30,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-79.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a8…3812backed Yes1c29,333$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fa…2e97backed Yes1c29,053$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a5d…e64ebacked Yes1c28,863$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0361…2d31backed Yes1c28,800$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes1c28,571$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5a…0c8abacked Yes1c27,400$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb43f…d56abacked Yes1c27,325$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa077…1972backed Yes1c26,878$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5733…8e8dbacked Yes1c26,676$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb0f…37f2backed Yes1c25,714$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4d…20cdbacked Yes1c25,167$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8daa…6384backed Yes1c25,139$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ee…9ababacked Yes1c25,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8409…bcf6backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f56…8be8backed Yes1c24,217$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cf…ba10backed Yes1c24,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbadf…e6f2backed Yes1c24,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f54…f570backed Yes1c23,845$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes1c23,608$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.97323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+184.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16e…da49backed Yes1c23,605$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4594…5747backed Yes1c23,478$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.