TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,086,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,446,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,086,196 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c7,921,629$39,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,510.84319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c6,968,907$39,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,580.19160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c3,755,803$16,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,371.53283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f5…e5e7backed Yes0c2,000,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,600110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c1,562,063$7,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,562.062010%2 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-82.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c1,359,276$4,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,403.98329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e2a…07bfbacked Yes1c1,000,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes1c1,000,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes0c730,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c479,838$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.291769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c356,190$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.94454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c305,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c280,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes0c268,331$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.99323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ee…9ababacked Yes0c255,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes0c245,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes1c241,184$3,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,108.43147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-85.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yes0c200,102$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.15851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes0c178,932$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.8670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1454…7a4abacked Yes1c178,214$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0361…2d31backed Yes0c174,000$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d02…0209backed Yes0c166,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd4…5830backed Yes0c166,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed Yes0c166,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes1c164,350$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.7515944%70 W · 89 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x915e…a4b6backed Yes1c158,422$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c157,000$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf465…ee46backed Yes1c150,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb4f…3b67backed Yes1c148,713$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f2…39f2backed Yes0c120,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d47…47b6backed Yes1c115,569$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f38…ef2abacked Yes1c115,052$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d5…77cebacked Yes1c113,610$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Yes1c106,948$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.592540%10 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d5…3ffbbacked Yes1c106,633$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…e031backed Yes1c106,364$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x640e…31babacked Yes1c103,845$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…ba65backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05da…ae41backed Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d2…2768backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752f…9332backed Yes1c100,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c9…a27cbacked Yes1c98,792$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc474…8c6ebacked Yes1c94,303$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.12425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c94,000$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.5323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes0c80,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-79.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4138…2a24backed Yes1c80,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes1c73,333$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a448backed Yes0c71,976$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c70,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1b…66bfbacked Yes1c68,732$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1b…76f4backed Yes1c67,990$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c67,779$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.72323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e5…89acbacked Yes1c64,550$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5611…b0d6backed Yes1c62,229$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd2d…f832backed Yes1c61,871$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef47…e705backed Yes1c60,557$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c60,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7023…551fbacked Yes1c59,876$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df0…aee5backed Yes1c54,983$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd8…7311backed Yes1c54,400$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a5d…d912backed Yes1c53,800$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980a…1bb5backed Yes1c53,750$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe4b…8beabacked Yes1c53,467$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e0b…2bf4backed Yes1c53,367$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c53,282$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.13110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x975d…0764backed Yes1c52,600$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x871f…5a42backed Yes1c52,550$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e0…b868backed Yes1c51,700$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8296…8bc0backed Yes1c51,183$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f63…e2dbbacked Yes1c50,317$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1623…d4b0backed Yes1c50,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509744.3%43 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a38…82f5backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid-40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes1c49,942$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.3170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5222…7117backed Yes1c48,327$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd268…2ad1backed Yes1c45,905$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf041…034abacked Yes0c45,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b8…ba77backed Yes0c45,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a71…358fbacked Yes1c44,067$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2665…11babacked Yes1c43,905$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6006…78ecbacked Yes1c43,874$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5e…281bbacked Yes1c43,769$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb2…8eacbacked Yes1c43,679$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b16…802bbacked Yes1c43,671$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd562…d719backed Yes1c43,665$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c40…9102backed Yes1c43,484$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd665…5886backed Yes1c43,423$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d7…2122backed Yes1c43,390$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6981…2caebacked Yes1c43,386$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ac…9cf6backed Yes1c43,374$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5d9…819ebacked Yes1c43,307$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf830…f5d1backed Yes1c43,280$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e3…70ecbacked Yes1c43,276$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a16…9e3cbacked Yes1c43,251$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81eb…caaabacked Yes1c42,857$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc225…5f45backed Yes1c42,650$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.