TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,185,428
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,437,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,185,428 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x067f…e041backed Yes8c285,664$22,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,486.3718435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes10c184,023$18,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,520.793070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Yes8c150,000$11,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,415.8716051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Yes9c126,174$11,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,349.616219.4%12 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4947…4f22backed Yes12c119,398$13,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,774.1750%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes8c116,730$8,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,988.422638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes7c114,025$8,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,505.812128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes10c112,576$11,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,789.748622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Yes7c100,000$7,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,1005352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0547backed Yes7c100,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,000520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes7c95,375$6,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,206.2316226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf98…0554backed Yes9c90,425$8,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,258.63020%6 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes5c78,615$4,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,254.0683147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed Yes8c76,827$6,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,057.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes8c75,943$6,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,039.328436.3%103 W · 181 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb49e…31d7backed Yes9c74,354$7,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,034.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes2c71,166$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.8116036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Yes10c69,950$6,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,660.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-77.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9811…5de5backed Yes2c68,228$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.77166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+346.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfc4…95a3backed Yes4c66,734$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,384.632512%3 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+98%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes4c66,039$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.285032%16 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes9c65,000$5,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,598.8122142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes13c63,560$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,5007661.8%47 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes9c62,871$5,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,941.532213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-56.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes8c62,730$4,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,955.712827.3%35 W · 93 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Yes11c58,218$6,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,146.219442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a06…fb08backed Yes10c57,841$5,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,784.052321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes6c57,476$3,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,607.213511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes4c56,917$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.2714349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee29…8c8bbacked Yes11c54,305$5,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,937.6250%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2aa…0b4ebacked Yes1c53,369$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d84…b881backed Yes7c53,016$3,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,973.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x869f…7a8bbacked Yes8c52,934$4,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,334.7944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes7c51,807$3,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,813.828428.6%24 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2022…c2d0backed Yes9c51,529$4,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,665.3870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Yes9c48,909$4,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,161.2924056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc5b…ba65backed Yes6c48,644$2,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,904.053528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes4c47,810$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.025724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b5…a403backed Yes10c47,160$4,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,489.111323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c46,837$4,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,368.736826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes9c46,575$4,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,321.181729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-43.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8ae8…3ee1backed Yes8c46,526$3,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,766.091921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a6…9c48backed Yes9c45,688$3,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9043834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98be…5794backed Yes11c45,000$4,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,774.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes8c42,181$3,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,538.01812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bc…c822backed Yes10c41,262$4,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.97333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Yes7c40,000$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6801330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x741b…0468backed Yes3c39,366$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.932313%3 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+156.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2497…e26abacked Yes9c37,018$3,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,357.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+175.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes7c36,868$2,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,433.3153253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes9c36,578$3,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,183.7730446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe379…3c98backed Yes8c34,584$2,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.472718.5%5 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes5c33,675$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.14323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735f…0e5bbacked Yes9c33,366$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,880.781717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes8c31,578$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6552313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d81…e643backed Yes8c31,259$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,419.14450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+260.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes8c29,776$2,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.8611146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad6…781fbacked Yes4c26,896$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.09714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-82.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba06…a6a9backed Yes7c26,783$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1949…515ebacked Yes3c25,463$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes8c25,364$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.2333328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02f5…18a3backed Yes3c25,252$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.881030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+134%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes8c24,965$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.282138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes7c24,574$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.7112550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe8…fc24backed Yes11c23,673$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.57128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Yes8c23,658$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.533548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes2c23,168$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.687857.7%45 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes11c23,094$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0adb…7693backed Yes7c22,381$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.174131.7%13 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+86.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes2c22,376$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.18323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+184.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9af5…5312backed Yes2c21,455$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+77.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee1f…9cedbacked Yes2c21,071$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.29140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1082…07f6backed Yes2c21,061$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes4c20,337$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.53283.6%1 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes3c20,283$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.61323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe459…737dbacked Yes5c20,283$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3f4…05e9backed Yes6c20,100$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.46339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes12c19,661$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2738540%34 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes10c19,535$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.773923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Yes10c19,326$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+54.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c19,249$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.1523024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes8c18,605$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.45674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes3c17,305$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.075628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16d4…6e9bbacked Yes4c17,279$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.861520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes9c17,271$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.4810537.1%39 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes9c16,550$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.6716344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes3c15,912$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.0147738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes9c15,813$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.511618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes8c15,771$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.026124.6%15 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa5…5f74backed Yes8c15,589$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a3…c540backed Yes12c15,383$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Yes7c15,193$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.258035%28 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes10c15,023$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.5818745.5%85 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes2c14,975$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.141769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8e…2ef0backed Yes3c14,899$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb25…1c1fbacked Yes8c14,486$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes8c14,434$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.213122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes9c14,365$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.264531.1%14 W · 31 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Yes7c14,346$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.14634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes8c14,040$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1752240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.