TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,283,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,400,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,283,193 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 993 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c13,030,504$67,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,463.23283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c2,649,616$14,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,125.83160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c1,616,955$5,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,683.88319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes1c1,129,995$6,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,779.97130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c1,009,848$6,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,849.42454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes1c918,487$5,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,209.9560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4939…2307backed Yes1c914,109$5,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,485.0740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf541…74f7backed Yes1c717,215$4,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,303.2950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c592,387$3,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,404.32329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c484,497$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.81769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes0c480,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes0c465,160$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.43323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+160.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c352,246$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.19100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c283,753$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.52219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes1c231,441$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.652010%2 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-82.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes1c221,367$2,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,725.59147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-85.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes0c215,000$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c205,468$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.87303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f5…e5e7backed Yes1c193,359$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.79110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb52…475dbacked Yes1c169,662$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f2…1240backed Yes1c157,143$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710d…daf5backed Yes1c151,305$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a95…7274backed Yes1c150,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes1c150,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0377…7fcdbacked Yes1c142,800$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes1c126,093$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.56323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff9…c871backed Yes1c114,112$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes0c110,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4603815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48e4…27e6backed Yes1c109,714$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8892…fc50backed Yes1c100,217$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1b…76f4backed Yes1c90,420$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c6a…8e63backed Yes1c84,780$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.68540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c81,000$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449323.1%1 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes1c80,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes1c77,000$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0012626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x010f…6a38backed Yes1c63,557$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354b…84d8backed Yes1c63,500$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ed8…c981backed Yes1c63,500$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82e…102fbacked Yes1c63,143$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd65d…dcf3backed Yes1c63,129$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b7…f7fabacked Yes1c62,929$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa966…2000backed Yes1c62,671$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f5…fb50backed Yes1c62,625$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa484…b74cbacked Yes1c61,829$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f4…b6bdbacked Yes0c61,750$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f38…ef2abacked Yes1c61,743$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df0…aee5backed Yes1c61,700$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d47…47b6backed Yes1c61,257$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc4…ec57backed Yes1c60,100$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ee…9ababacked Yes0c60,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd43…df4cbacked Yes1c60,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad69…7ccdbacked Yes1c55,485$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf10d…c068backed Yes1c55,267$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a9a…bc14backed Yes1c55,245$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1623…d4b0backed Yes1c54,870$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.0930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a10…8653backed Yes1c54,539$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a27…1a24backed Yes1c53,817$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2b…7b3fbacked Yes1c52,250$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9f6…8488backed Yes1c51,193$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5552…81afbacked Yes1c50,217$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid-40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes1c50,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc08b…e35bbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643e…f611backed Yes1c45,517$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5424…1bdabacked Yes1c45,000$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcefb…f6d1backed Yes1c43,629$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1301…5cc7backed Yes1c43,570$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc2…9ad9backed Yes1c43,484$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…14d4backed Yes1c43,469$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b6…c9c1backed Yes1c43,453$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c98…c64abacked Yes1c43,302$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2993…e53dbacked Yes1c42,927$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef94…ad2fbacked Yes1c42,897$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x568b…4ecebacked Yes1c42,854$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2fd…99f8backed Yes1c42,286$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd716…6deabacked Yes1c40,716$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8138…c27fbacked Yes1c40,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0535…d862backed Yes1c39,953$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe99c…0707backed Yes1c39,714$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ea…8532backed Yes1c39,687$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c38,739$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.41355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f6…8f62backed Yes1c38,298$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf13d…5e8bbacked Yes1c36,320$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0026…aef7backed Yes1c35,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a3…e06fbacked Yes1c34,527$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x735f…5886backed Yes1c34,226$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes1c33,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef02…4f7ebacked Yes0c33,031$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.03520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed52…546fbacked Yes0c32,250$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a3…d15cbacked Yes1c31,400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes1c30,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-79.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa635…551dbacked Yes1c29,877$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e04…5171backed Yes1c29,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes1c26,280$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.83323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+184.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad5c…9adabacked Yes1c26,184$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f29…4abfbacked Yes1c26,043$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06a…c5ebbacked Yes1c25,992$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x131e…ebf3backed Yes1c25,743$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdc…7c8cbacked Yes1c25,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.